AI correctly predicted the Pachuca win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Pachuca Pachuca ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Pachuca attacking xG significantly stronger (1.04 vs 0.64)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pachuca win 3–1).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Pachuca 1.04 — Atlas 0.64
-
Feb 14, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pachuca win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Pachuca win · Pachuca 3–1 Atlas
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga MX — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 36 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 33 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 30 |
| 6 | Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 8 | Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 23 |
| 10 | Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 11 | Club Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 |
| 12 | FC Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 16 | Mazatlán | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | 34 | 17 | +17 | 36 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 33 | 17 | +16 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 33 |
| 4 | Toluca | 17 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 30 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 | FC Juarez | 17 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 19 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 17 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 31 |
| 8 | Atletico San Luis | 17 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 18 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 17 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Leon | 17 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Mazatlán | 17 | 22 | 37 | -15 | 15 |
| 12 | Club America | 17 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 25 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 12 |
| 14 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Club Queretaro | 17 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 20 |
| 17 | Atlas | 17 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 26 |
| 18 | Puebla | 17 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 17 | 66.2 | 37.2 | +29.0 | 30 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 50.6 | 30.3 | +20.3 | 36 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 57.5 | 37.8 | +19.7 | 25 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 55.0 | 36.7 | +18.3 | 33 |
| 5 | Club America | 17 | 43.4 | 30.7 | +12.7 | 25 |
| 6 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | 47.5 | 38.8 | +8.7 | 36 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 17 | 47.8 | 43.3 | +4.5 | 18 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 17 | 35.2 | 34.7 | +0.5 | 31 |
| 9 | FC Juarez | 17 | 43.8 | 46.9 | -3.1 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 17 | 37.6 | 40.8 | -3.2 | 18 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 17 | 37.4 | 41.6 | -4.2 | 18 |
| 12 | Leon | 17 | 35.9 | 46.2 | -10.3 | 22 |
| 13 | Club Queretaro | 17 | 33.4 | 46.9 | -13.5 | 20 |
| 14 | Mazatlán | 17 | 36.5 | 50.6 | -14.1 | 15 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 37.6 | 51.8 | -14.2 | 12 |
| 16 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 40.7 | 55.4 | -14.7 | 23 |
| 17 | Atlas | 17 | 29.2 | 47.1 | -17.9 | 26 |
| 18 | Puebla | 17 | 31.0 | 49.3 | -18.3 | 13 |
