Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Mirassol vs Gremio

Prediction Audit: Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mirassol Mirassol
Jul 17, 2026 - 23:00
2 2.35
1 1.47
xG Accuracy: 80%
Gremio Gremio

AI correctly predicted the Mirassol win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mirassol Mirassol ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mirassol 56.2% 49.6% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 21.4% 28.9% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Gremio 22.4% 21.6% +0.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 28.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 21.4%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mirassol win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.82) — 3 goals materialised
  • Mirassol attacking xG significantly stronger (2.35 vs 1.47)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mirassol higher (63.6% vs model 56.2%, 7.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mirassol win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mirassol 56.2% · Draw 21.4% · Gremio 22.4%
    • xG · Mirassol 2.35 — Gremio 1.47
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mirassol 1.95 · Draw 3.35 · Gremio 4.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Mirassol 49.6% · Draw 28.9% · Gremio 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mirassol 1.95 · Draw 3.35 · Gremio 4.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Mirassol 49.6% · Draw 28.9% · Gremio 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mirassol win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 69/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (74%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 72/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454415

Closing Odds 3.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mirassol win · Mirassol 2–1 Gremio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campeonato Brasileiro Série A
  • Fixture: Mirassol vs Grêmio
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 56.2% · Draw 21.4% · Away 22.4%
  • xG (showing): Mirassol 2.35 — Grêmio 1.47 (total xG ≈ 3.82)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.6% · Over 2.5 73.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 70.7% · No 29.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 70.7% · No 29.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 28 18 6 4 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 57
3 Atletico Paranaense 28 14 7 7 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 45
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 38
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 38
10 RB Bragantino 27 10 6 11 36
11 Sao Paulo 27 10 6 11 36
12 Botafogo 28 9 8 11 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 32
16 Vasco DA Gama 27 8 7 12 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 28
19 remo 28 5 8 15 23
20 Chapecoense-sc 27 3 9 15 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 28 55 23 +32 60
2 Palmeiras 28 47 21 +26 57
3 Fluminense 28 44 36 +8 48
4 Atletico Paranaense 28 43 32 +11 49
5 Bahia 28 43 35 +8 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 42 40 +2 45
7 Santos 27 41 40 +1 38
8 Botafogo 28 41 45 -4 35
9 Coritiba 28 37 43 -6 38
10 Atletico-MG 27 36 32 +4 40
11 Vasco DA Gama 27 34 41 -7 31
12 RB Bragantino 27 33 31 +2 36
13 Mirassol 28 33 42 -9 32
14 Sao Paulo 27 32 30 +2 36
15 remo 28 32 47 -15 23
16 Internacional 28 30 36 -6 28
17 Gremio 28 30 38 -8 29
18 Corinthians 28 29 32 -3 32
19 Chapecoense-sc 27 29 53 -24 18
20 Vitoria 28 28 42 -14 33
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 28 12.2 6.9 +5.3 46
2 Santos 27 9.9 6.6 +3.3 38
3 Flamengo 28 9.0 5.7 +3.3 60
4 Vasco DA Gama 27 9.2 6.1 +3.1 31
5 Atletico-MG 27 5.9 2.9 +3.0 40
6 Corinthians 28 7.2 4.7 +2.5 32
7 Atletico Paranaense 28 10.2 8.1 +2.1 49
8 Fluminense 28 8.7 6.8 +1.9 48
9 Palmeiras 28 8.2 6.5 +1.7 57
10 Botafogo 28 11.0 10.9 +0.1 35
11 Sao Paulo 27 4.9 4.8 +0.1 36
12 RB Bragantino 27 4.9 5.7 -0.8 36
13 Cruzeiro 28 9.3 10.2 -0.9 45
14 Mirassol 28 7.1 9.0 -1.9 32
15 remo 28 5.6 7.7 -2.1 23
16 Coritiba 28 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
17 Chapecoense-sc 27 7.3 9.9 -2.6 18
18 Internacional 28 8.8 11.5 -2.7 28
19 Vitoria 28 6.6 11.7 -5.1 33
20 Gremio 28 5.3 13.5 -8.2 29
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions