The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Al-Rayyan SC at 42.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Al-Rayyan SC Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.09) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Al-Rayyan SC; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 3–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Qatar SC 1.41 — Al-Rayyan SC 1.68
-
Feb 06, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Qatar SC 3–3 Al-Rayyan SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Stars League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 2 | Al Shamal | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 |
| 3 | Al-Rayyan SC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 4 | Al-Gharafa | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 5 | Al-Duhail SC | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Qatar SC | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 7 | Al-Arabi SC | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 8 | Al Wakrah | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 9 | Al Ahli Doha | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 26 |
| 10 | Al-Sailiya | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 11 | Al Shahaniya | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 12 | UMM Salal | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 22 | 56 | 30 | +26 | 45 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 22 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 38 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 22 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 33 |
| 4 | Al Shamal | 22 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 40 |
| 5 | Al-Arabi SC | 22 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 32 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 22 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 20 |
| 7 | Al-Gharafa | 22 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 36 |
| 8 | Qatar SC | 22 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 32 |
| 9 | Al Ahli Doha | 22 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 26 |
| 10 | Al Wakrah | 22 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 27 |
| 11 | Al-Sailiya | 22 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 22 |
| 12 | Al Shahaniya | 22 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Duhail SC | 22 | 4.5 | 2.3 | +2.2 | 33 |
| 2 | Al-Arabi SC | 22 | 5.2 | 3.2 | +2.0 | 32 |
| 3 | Al-Rayyan SC | 22 | 3.8 | 2.0 | +1.8 | 38 |
| 4 | Al Wakrah | 22 | 4.4 | 3.7 | +0.7 | 27 |
| 5 | Al Sadd | 22 | 4.3 | 3.9 | +0.4 | 45 |
| 6 | Al Shamal | 22 | 3.5 | 3.2 | +0.3 | 40 |
| 7 | Al-Gharafa | 22 | 2.2 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 36 |
| 8 | Al Ahli Doha | 22 | 3.0 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 26 |
| 9 | Qatar SC | 22 | 3.9 | 4.7 | -0.8 | 32 |
| 10 | Al Shahaniya | 22 | 3.1 | 4.8 | -1.7 | 21 |
| 11 | UMM Salal | 22 | 2.5 | 4.2 | -1.7 | 20 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 22 | 1.7 | 3.7 | -2.0 | 22 |
