Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga 1 Feminin / Atletic Olimpia Gherla vs Unirea Alba Iulia W

Prediction Audit: Atletic Olimpia Gherla vs Unirea Alba Iulia W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atletic Olimpia Gherla Atletic Olimpia Gherla
May 17, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Unirea Alba Iulia W Unirea Alba Iulia W

The model missed the final outcome (Unirea Alba Iulia W win 1–2).

The model had projected Atletic Olimpia Gherla at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atletic Olimpia Gherla Unirea Alba Iulia W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Atletic Olimpia Gherla; match finished Unirea Alba Iulia W

Market lesson

The full-time result was Unirea Alba Iulia W win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 17:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Atletic Olimpia Gherla 1.45 — Unirea Alba Iulia W 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Unirea Alba Iulia W win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 06:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1964582

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Unirea Alba Iulia W win · Atletic Olimpia Gherla 1–2 Unirea Alba Iulia W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga 1 Feminin
  • Fixture: Atletic Olimpia Gherla vs Unirea Alba Iulia W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Atletic Olimpia Gherla 1.45 — Unirea Alba Iulia W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS No (Yes 32.2% · No 67.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 32.2% · No 67.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Feminin Liga 1 Feminin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Farul Constanţa W 14 11 2 1 35
2 Olimpia Cluj 14 9 2 3 29
3 Csikszereda MC 14 8 4 2 28
4 SSU Poli Timişoara W 14 8 3 3 27
5 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud 14 5 0 9 15
6 Unirea Alba Iulia W 14 3 2 9 11
7 Atletic Olimpia Gherla 14 3 1 10 10
8 Vasas Femina W 14 1 2 11 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Farul Constanţa W 14 43 9 +34 35
2 Olimpia Cluj 14 40 17 +23 29
3 Csikszereda MC 14 36 8 +28 28
4 SSU Poli Timişoara W 14 26 15 +11 27
5 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud 14 24 31 -7 15
6 Atletic Olimpia Gherla 14 20 37 -17 10
7 Unirea Alba Iulia W 14 14 24 -10 11
8 Vasas Femina W 14 6 68 -62 5
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