Prediction Audit: Olimpia Cluj vs Farul Constanţa W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olimpia Cluj

May 23, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.45

5 1.25

xG Accuracy: 32%

Farul Constanţa W

The model missed the final outcome (Farul Constanţa W win 1–5).

The model had projected Olimpia Cluj at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Olimpia Cluj Farul Constanţa W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 2-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Olimpia Cluj; match finished Farul Constanţa W
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Farul Constanţa W win 1–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 24, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Olimpia Cluj 1.45 — Farul Constanţa W 1.25
May 23, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Farul Constanţa W win · 1–5
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3062440

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Farul Constanţa W win · Olimpia Cluj 1–5 Farul Constanţa W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga 1 Feminin
Fixture: Olimpia Cluj vs Farul Constanţa W
Kickoff: 2026-05-24 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Olimpia Cluj 1.45 — Farul Constanţa W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.6% · No 34.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 65.6% · No 34.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Feminin — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Farul Constanţa W	14	11	2	1	35
2	Olimpia Cluj	14	9	2	3	29
3	Csikszereda MC	14	8	4	2	28
4	SSU Poli Timişoara W	14	8	3	3	27
5	Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud	14	5	0	9	15
6	Unirea Alba Iulia W	14	3	2	9	11
7	Atletic Olimpia Gherla	14	3	1	10	10
8	Vasas Femina W	14	1	2	11	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Farul Constanţa W	14	43	9	+34	35
2	Olimpia Cluj	14	40	17	+23	29
3	Csikszereda MC	14	36	8	+28	28
4	SSU Poli Timişoara W	14	26	15	+11	27
5	Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud	14	24	31	-7	15
6	Atletic Olimpia Gherla	14	20	37	-17	10
7	Unirea Alba Iulia W	14	14	24	-10	11
8	Vasas Femina W	14	6	68	-62	5