Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga 1 Feminin / Csikszereda MC vs Farul Constanţa W

Prediction Audit: Csikszereda MC vs Farul Constanţa W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Csikszereda MC Csikszereda MC
May 09, 2026 - 09:00
0 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Farul Constanţa W Farul Constanţa W

The model missed the final outcome (Farul Constanţa W win 0–4).

The model had projected Csikszereda MC at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Csikszereda MC Farul Constanţa W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Csikszereda MC; match finished Farul Constanţa W

Market lesson

The full-time result was Farul Constanţa W win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Csikszereda MC 1.45 — Farul Constanţa W 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Farul Constanţa W win · 0–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 18:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1747690

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Farul Constanţa W win · Csikszereda MC 0–4 Farul Constanţa W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 1 Feminin
  • Fixture: Csikszereda MC vs Farul Constanţa W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Csikszereda MC 1.45 — Farul Constanţa W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 74.6% · No 25.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 74.6% · No 25.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Feminin Liga 1 Feminin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Farul Constanţa W 14 11 2 1 35
2 Olimpia Cluj 14 9 2 3 29
3 Csikszereda MC 14 8 4 2 28
4 SSU Poli Timişoara W 14 8 3 3 27
5 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud 14 5 0 9 15
6 Unirea Alba Iulia W 14 3 2 9 11
7 Atletic Olimpia Gherla 14 3 1 10 10
8 Vasas Femina W 14 1 2 11 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Farul Constanţa W 14 43 9 +34 35
2 Olimpia Cluj 14 40 17 +23 29
3 Csikszereda MC 14 36 8 +28 28
4 SSU Poli Timişoara W 14 26 15 +11 27
5 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud 14 24 31 -7 15
6 Atletic Olimpia Gherla 14 20 37 -17 10
7 Unirea Alba Iulia W 14 14 24 -10 11
8 Vasas Femina W 14 6 68 -62 5
Liga 1 Feminin Romania. Liga 1 Feminin Predictions