Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Challenge League / FC Aarau vs Yverdon Sport

Prediction Audit: FC Aarau vs Yverdon Sport Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Aarau FC Aarau
May 15, 2026 - 18:15
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Yverdon Sport Yverdon Sport

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected FC Aarau at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Aarau Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Aarau higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Aarau -20.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Aarau 41.8% 62.5% -20.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.2% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Yverdon Sport 32.6% 17.2% +15.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates FC Aarau's win probability at 62.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC Aarau; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Aarau by 20.8 percentage points (62.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Aarau 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Yverdon Sport 32.6%
    • xG · FC Aarau 1.45 — Yverdon Sport 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Aarau 1.47 · Draw 4.54 · Yverdon Sport 5.34
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Aarau 62.5% · Draw 20.2% · Yverdon Sport 17.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Aarau 1.47 · Draw 4.54 · Yverdon Sport 5.34
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Aarau 62.5% · Draw 20.2% · Yverdon Sport 17.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1654836

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FC Aarau 2–2 Yverdon Sport
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: FC Aarau vs Yverdon Sport
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): FC Aarau 1.45 — Yverdon Sport 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.0% · Over 2.5 66.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 83.5% · No 16.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 83.5% · No 16.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Vaduz 36 25 6 5 81
2 FC Aarau 36 25 5 6 80
3 Yverdon Sport 36 20 7 9 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 14 8 14 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 14 7 15 49
6 Rapperswil 36 14 2 20 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 10 10 16 40
8 FC WIL 1900 36 10 10 16 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Aarau 36 77 47 +30 80
2 FC Vaduz 36 75 41 +34 81
3 Yverdon Sport 36 75 48 +27 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 59 51 +8 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 55 56 -1 49
6 Rapperswil 36 52 62 -10 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 46 54 -8 40
8 Bellinzona 36 40 77 -37 23
9 FC WIL 1900 36 39 55 -16 40
10 Stade Nyonnais 36 33 60 -27 28
Challenge League Switzerland. Challenge League Predictions