Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Challenge League / Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil

Prediction Audit: Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yverdon Sport Yverdon Sport
May 11, 2026 - 18:15
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Rapperswil Rapperswil

AI correctly predicted the Yverdon Sport win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yverdon Sport Yverdon Sport ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Yverdon Sport higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Yverdon Sport -16.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yverdon Sport 41.8% 57.8% -16.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.6% +4.1 pp Aligned
Rapperswil 32.6% 20.7% +11.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Yverdon Sport's win probability at 57.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yverdon Sport win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Yverdon Sport than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yverdon Sport higher (57.8% vs model 41.8%, 16.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yverdon Sport win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yverdon Sport 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Rapperswil 32.6%
    • xG · Yverdon Sport 1.45 — Rapperswil 1.25
  2. May 11, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yverdon Sport 1.64 · Draw 4.39 · Rapperswil 4.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Yverdon Sport 57.8% · Draw 21.6% · Rapperswil 20.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yverdon Sport 1.64 · Draw 4.39 · Rapperswil 4.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Yverdon Sport 57.8% · Draw 21.6% · Rapperswil 20.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yverdon Sport win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 10:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1587674

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yverdon Sport win · Yverdon Sport 3–1 Rapperswil
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Yverdon Sport 1.45 — Rapperswil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Vaduz 36 25 6 5 81
2 FC Aarau 36 25 5 6 80
3 Yverdon Sport 36 20 7 9 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 14 8 14 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 14 7 15 49
6 Rapperswil 36 14 2 20 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 10 10 16 40
8 FC WIL 1900 36 10 10 16 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Aarau 36 77 47 +30 80
2 FC Vaduz 36 75 41 +34 81
3 Yverdon Sport 36 75 48 +27 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 59 51 +8 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 55 56 -1 49
6 Rapperswil 36 52 62 -10 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 46 54 -8 40
8 Bellinzona 36 40 77 -37 23
9 FC WIL 1900 36 39 55 -16 40
10 Stade Nyonnais 36 33 60 -27 28
Challenge League Switzerland. Challenge League Predictions