Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Challenge League / FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau

Prediction Audit: FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Vaduz FC Vaduz
May 11, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
FC Aarau FC Aarau

The model missed the final outcome (FC Aarau win 1–2).

The model had projected FC Vaduz at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Vaduz FC Aarau ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates FC Vaduz considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FC Vaduz +5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Vaduz 41.8% 36.2% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.2% -0.6 pp Aligned
FC Aarau 32.6% 37.5% -5.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates FC Vaduz's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.2%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Aarau win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on FC Vaduz.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC Vaduz; match finished FC Aarau

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Vaduz by 5.5 percentage points (36.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Vaduz 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · FC Aarau 32.6%
    • xG · FC Vaduz 1.45 — FC Aarau 1.25
  2. May 11, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Vaduz 2.63 · Draw 3.63 · FC Aarau 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Vaduz 36.2% · Draw 26.2% · FC Aarau 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Vaduz 2.63 · Draw 3.63 · FC Aarau 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Vaduz 36.2% · Draw 26.2% · FC Aarau 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Aarau win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2309790

Closing Odds 2.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Aarau win · FC Vaduz 1–2 FC Aarau
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): FC Vaduz 1.45 — FC Aarau 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 85.8% · Implied: 65.6% · Probability edge: +20.2 pts · Est. EV: +23.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 85.8% · No 14.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Vaduz 36 25 6 5 81
2 FC Aarau 36 25 5 6 80
3 Yverdon Sport 36 20 7 9 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 14 8 14 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 14 7 15 49
6 Rapperswil 36 14 2 20 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 10 10 16 40
8 FC WIL 1900 36 10 10 16 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Aarau 36 77 47 +30 80
2 FC Vaduz 36 75 41 +34 81
3 Yverdon Sport 36 75 48 +27 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 59 51 +8 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 55 56 -1 49
6 Rapperswil 36 52 62 -10 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 46 54 -8 40
8 Bellinzona 36 40 77 -37 23
9 FC WIL 1900 36 39 55 -16 40
10 Stade Nyonnais 36 33 60 -27 28
Challenge League Switzerland. Challenge League Predictions