The model missed the final outcome (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win 1–3).
The model had projected Stade Nyonnais at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Stade Nyonnais Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | 41.8% | 27.6% | +14.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.2% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 32.6% | 48.3% | -15.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Stade Lausanne-Ouchy than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Stade Nyonnais by 15.7 percentage points (57.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 32.6%
- xG · Stade Nyonnais 1.45 — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.25
-
May 11, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stade Nyonnais 3.45 · Draw 3.93 · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 27.6% · Draw 24.2% · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stade Nyonnais 3.45 · Draw 3.93 · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 27.6% · Draw 24.2% · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 11, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Challenge League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Vaduz | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 81 |
| 2 | FC Aarau | 36 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 80 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 67 |
| 4 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 36 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 50 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 6 | Rapperswil | 36 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 44 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 40 |
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 40 |
| 9 | Stade Nyonnais | 36 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 36 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 23 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Aarau | 36 | 77 | 47 | +30 | 80 |
| 2 | FC Vaduz | 36 | 75 | 41 | +34 | 81 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 36 | 75 | 48 | +27 | 67 |
| 4 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 36 | 59 | 51 | +8 | 50 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 36 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 49 |
| 6 | Rapperswil | 36 | 52 | 62 | -10 | 44 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 36 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 40 |
| 8 | Bellinzona | 36 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 23 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 36 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 40 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 36 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 28 |
