Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Challenge League / Bellinzona vs FC WIL 1900

Prediction Audit: Bellinzona vs FC WIL 1900 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bellinzona Bellinzona
May 11, 2026 - 18:15
2 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
FC WIL 1900 FC WIL 1900

The model missed the final outcome (FC WIL 1900 win 2–4).

The model had projected Bellinzona at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bellinzona FC WIL 1900 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Bellinzona considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Bellinzona +13.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bellinzona 41.8% 28.4% +13.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.9% -1.2 pp Aligned
FC WIL 1900 32.6% 44.7% -12.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Bellinzona's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC WIL 1900 win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Bellinzona.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bellinzona by 13.4 percentage points (28.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bellinzona 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · FC WIL 1900 32.6%
    • xG · Bellinzona 1.45 — FC WIL 1900 1.25
  2. May 11, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bellinzona 3.36 · Draw 3.54 · FC WIL 1900 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Bellinzona 28.4% · Draw 26.9% · FC WIL 1900 44.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bellinzona 3.36 · Draw 3.54 · FC WIL 1900 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Bellinzona 28.4% · Draw 26.9% · FC WIL 1900 44.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC WIL 1900 win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1765480

Closing Odds 3.36
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result FC WIL 1900 win · Bellinzona 2–4 FC WIL 1900
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: Bellinzona vs FC WIL 1900
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bellinzona 1.45 — FC WIL 1900 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 69.1% · Implied: 42.3% · Probability edge: +26.8 pts · Est. EV: +55.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 30.9% · No 69.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Challenge League Matches Track Bellinzona Next Match Prediction Track FC WIL 1900 Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Bellinzona & FC WIL 1900!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Vaduz 36 25 6 5 81
2 FC Aarau 36 25 5 6 80
3 Yverdon Sport 36 20 7 9 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 14 8 14 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 14 7 15 49
6 Rapperswil 36 14 2 20 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 10 10 16 40
8 FC WIL 1900 36 10 10 16 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Aarau 36 77 47 +30 80
2 FC Vaduz 36 75 41 +34 81
3 Yverdon Sport 36 75 48 +27 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 59 51 +8 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 55 56 -1 49
6 Rapperswil 36 52 62 -10 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 46 54 -8 40
8 Bellinzona 36 40 77 -37 23
9 FC WIL 1900 36 39 55 -16 40
10 Stade Nyonnais 36 33 60 -27 28
Challenge League Switzerland. Challenge League Predictions