Predictions / Football / Thailand. Thai League 1 / Kanchanaburi vs Ratchaburi

Prediction Audit: Kanchanaburi vs Ratchaburi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kanchanaburi Kanchanaburi
May 10, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.17
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 70%
Ratchaburi Ratchaburi

The model missed the final outcome (Ratchaburi win 0–1).

The model had projected Kanchanaburi at 35.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kanchanaburi Ratchaburi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ratchaburi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ratchaburi -24.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kanchanaburi 35.1% 22.9% +12.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 31.8% 19.8% +12.0 pp Model Edge
Ratchaburi 33.1% 57.3% -24.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Ratchaburi's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.1%, a difference of 24.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ratchaburi win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Kanchanaburi; match finished Ratchaburi

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kanchanaburi by 24.2 percentage points (59.3% vs model 35.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kanchanaburi 35.1% · Draw 31.8% · Ratchaburi 33.1%
    • xG · Kanchanaburi 1.17 — Ratchaburi 1.13
  2. May 10, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kanchanaburi 4.05 · Draw 4.68 · Ratchaburi 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Kanchanaburi 22.9% · Draw 19.8% · Ratchaburi 57.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kanchanaburi 4.05 · Draw 4.68 · Ratchaburi 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Kanchanaburi 22.9% · Draw 19.8% · Ratchaburi 57.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ratchaburi win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3966714

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ratchaburi win · Kanchanaburi 0–1 Ratchaburi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Thai League 1
  • Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Ratchaburi
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.1% · Draw 31.8% · Away 33.1%
  • xG (showing): Kanchanaburi 1.17 — Ratchaburi 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.3)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 59.6% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +22.8 pts · Est. EV: +67.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.4% · No 51.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 1 Thai League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Buriram United 30 22 4 4 70
2 Port FC 30 18 6 6 60
3 Ratchaburi 30 18 5 7 59
4 Bangkok Glass 30 14 10 6 52
5 Bangkok United 30 13 11 6 50
6 Prachuap 30 11 12 7 45
7 Chiangrai United 30 9 13 8 40
8 Chonburi FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Rayong FC 30 9 10 11 37
10 Ayutthaya FC 30 8 8 14 32
11 Uthai Thani 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lamphun Warrior 30 4 17 9 29
13 Sukhothai FC 30 6 10 14 28
14 Muangthong United 30 6 8 16 26
15 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 6 6 18 24
16 Kanchanaburi 30 4 11 15 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Buriram United 30 76 31 +45 70
2 Port FC 30 59 23 +36 60
3 Ratchaburi 30 55 30 +25 59
4 Bangkok Glass 30 45 29 +16 52
5 Rayong FC 30 44 49 -5 37
6 Bangkok United 30 43 32 +11 50
7 Prachuap 30 39 37 +2 45
8 Uthai Thani 30 39 44 -5 31
9 Chonburi FC 30 38 41 -3 39
10 Chiangrai United 30 36 37 -1 40
11 Lamphun Warrior 30 35 47 -12 29
12 Ayutthaya FC 30 34 50 -16 32
13 Kanchanaburi 30 29 54 -25 23
14 Muangthong United 30 27 52 -25 26
15 Sukhothai FC 30 23 42 -19 28
16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 20 44 -24 24
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Buriram United 30 13.4 6.1 +7.3 70
2 Bangkok United 30 13.3 7.2 +6.1 50
3 Port FC 30 12.0 8.3 +3.7 60
4 Prachuap 30 10.3 6.6 +3.7 45
5 Ayutthaya FC 30 10.3 7.9 +2.4 32
6 Rayong FC 30 9.8 7.8 +2.0 37
7 Muangthong United 30 10.3 9.8 +0.5 26
8 Chonburi FC 30 8.9 10.1 -1.2 39
9 Ratchaburi 30 10.8 12.2 -1.4 59
10 Lamphun Warrior 30 9.5 11.1 -1.6 29
11 Uthai Thani 30 9.0 10.8 -1.8 31
12 Bangkok Glass 30 8.1 9.9 -1.8 52
13 Kanchanaburi 30 9.0 12.2 -3.2 23
14 Chiangrai United 30 8.4 11.8 -3.4 40
15 Sukhothai FC 30 7.8 13.3 -5.5 28
16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 6.5 12.2 -5.7 24