Predictions / Football / Thailand. Thai League 1 / Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Prediction Audit: Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chonburi FC Chonburi FC
May 10, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.41
1 0.85
xG Accuracy: 82%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Nakhon Ratchasima FC

AI correctly predicted the Chonburi FC win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Chonburi FC Chonburi FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Nakhon Ratchasima FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nakhon Ratchasima FC -7.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chonburi FC 48.5% 48.3% +0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 30.5% 23.4% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21.0% 28.3% -7.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's win probability at 28.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 21.0%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Chonburi FC win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Chonburi FC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.41 vs 0.85)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Chonburi FC higher (55.7% vs model 48.5%, 7.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Chonburi FC win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chonburi FC 48.5% · Draw 30.5% · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21.0%
    • xG · Chonburi FC 1.41 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.85
  2. May 10, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chonburi FC 1.93 · Draw 3.98 · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Chonburi FC 48.3% · Draw 23.4% · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chonburi FC 1.93 · Draw 3.98 · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Chonburi FC 48.3% · Draw 23.4% · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chonburi FC win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 10:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1586805

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chonburi FC win · Chonburi FC 2–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Thai League 1
  • Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.5% · Draw 30.5% · Away 21.0%
  • xG (showing): Chonburi FC 1.41 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.85 (total xG ≈ 2.26)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 60.7% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +16.3 pts · Est. EV: +33.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.9% · No 55.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 1 Thai League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Buriram United 30 22 4 4 70
2 Port FC 30 18 6 6 60
3 Ratchaburi 30 18 5 7 59
4 Bangkok Glass 30 14 10 6 52
5 Bangkok United 30 13 11 6 50
6 Prachuap 30 11 12 7 45
7 Chiangrai United 30 9 13 8 40
8 Chonburi FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Rayong FC 30 9 10 11 37
10 Ayutthaya FC 30 8 8 14 32
11 Uthai Thani 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lamphun Warrior 30 4 17 9 29
13 Sukhothai FC 30 6 10 14 28
14 Muangthong United 30 6 8 16 26
15 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 6 6 18 24
16 Kanchanaburi 30 4 11 15 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Buriram United 30 76 31 +45 70
2 Port FC 30 59 23 +36 60
3 Ratchaburi 30 55 30 +25 59
4 Bangkok Glass 30 45 29 +16 52
5 Rayong FC 30 44 49 -5 37
6 Bangkok United 30 43 32 +11 50
7 Prachuap 30 39 37 +2 45
8 Uthai Thani 30 39 44 -5 31
9 Chonburi FC 30 38 41 -3 39
10 Chiangrai United 30 36 37 -1 40
11 Lamphun Warrior 30 35 47 -12 29
12 Ayutthaya FC 30 34 50 -16 32
13 Kanchanaburi 30 29 54 -25 23
14 Muangthong United 30 27 52 -25 26
15 Sukhothai FC 30 23 42 -19 28
16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 20 44 -24 24
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Buriram United 30 13.4 6.1 +7.3 70
2 Bangkok United 30 13.3 7.2 +6.1 50
3 Port FC 30 12.0 8.3 +3.7 60
4 Prachuap 30 10.3 6.6 +3.7 45
5 Ayutthaya FC 30 10.3 7.9 +2.4 32
6 Rayong FC 30 9.8 7.8 +2.0 37
7 Muangthong United 30 10.3 9.8 +0.5 26
8 Chonburi FC 30 8.9 10.1 -1.2 39
9 Ratchaburi 30 10.8 12.2 -1.4 59
10 Lamphun Warrior 30 9.5 11.1 -1.6 29
11 Uthai Thani 30 9.0 10.8 -1.8 31
12 Bangkok Glass 30 8.1 9.9 -1.8 52
13 Kanchanaburi 30 9.0 12.2 -3.2 23
14 Chiangrai United 30 8.4 11.8 -3.4 40
15 Sukhothai FC 30 7.8 13.3 -5.5 28
16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 6.5 12.2 -5.7 24