AI correctly predicted the Verdes win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Verdes Verdes ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Verdes win 1–0).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Verdes 1.49 — Progresso 1.23
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Dec 14, 2025 · 01:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Verdes win · 1–0
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FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Verdes win · Verdes 1–0 Progresso
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Verdes | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 30 |
| 2 | Port Layola | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 3 | Progresso | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 4 | Bandits | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Napoles | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Wagiya | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Benque | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Layola | 12 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Verdes | 12 | 31 | 4 | +27 | 30 |
| 3 | Progresso | 12 | 31 | 16 | +15 | 20 |
| 4 | Wagiya | 12 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 14 |
| 5 | Bandits | 12 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 6 | Napoles | 12 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Benque | 12 | 6 | 63 | -57 | 1 |
