The model missed the final outcome (Prečko win 0–3).
The model had projected Mladost Petrinja at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Mladost Petrinja Prečko ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Mladost Petrinja; match finished Prečko
Market lesson
The full-time result was Prečko win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Mladost Petrinja 1.49 — Prečko 1.23
-
Feb 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Prečko win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Prečko win · Mladost Petrinja 0–3 Prečko
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Third NL - Sredite — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vrapče Zagreb | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 36 |
| 2 | Samobor | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 34 |
| 3 | Inker | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| 4 | Bistra | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 28 |
| 5 | Zagorec | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 6 | Prečko | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 7 | Kurilovec | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 8 | Ponikve | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Dinamo OO | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 10 | Gaj | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 11 | Trešnjevka | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Tigar Sveta Nedelja | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
| 13 | HAŠK | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 14 | Mladost Petrinja | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| 15 | Maksimir Zagreb | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 16 | Tekstilac Ravnice | 15 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samobor | 15 | 34 | 14 | +20 | 34 |
| 2 | Inker | 15 | 32 | 17 | +15 | 33 |
| 3 | Vrapče Zagreb | 15 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 36 |
| 4 | Dinamo OO | 15 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ponikve | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 22 |
| 6 | Zagorec | 15 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 27 |
| 7 | Prečko | 15 | 25 | 24 | +1 | 22 |
| 8 | Tigar Sveta Nedelja | 15 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Bistra | 15 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 28 |
| 10 | HAŠK | 15 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Mladost Petrinja | 15 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 14 |
| 12 | Tekstilac Ravnice | 15 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 6 |
| 13 | Kurilovec | 15 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 22 |
| 14 | Trešnjevka | 15 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
| 15 | Gaj | 15 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 17 |
| 16 | Maksimir Zagreb | 15 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 12 |
