Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 / Pardubice U19 vs Hradec Králové U19

Prediction Audit: Pardubice U19 vs Hradec Králové U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pardubice U19 Pardubice U19
Jun 13, 2026 - 08:15
3 1.67
2 1.91
xG Accuracy: 68%
Hradec Králové U19 Hradec Králové U19

The model missed the final outcome (Pardubice U19 win 3–2).

The model had projected Hradec Králové U19 at 42.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hradec Králové U19 Pardubice U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Pardubice U19 -4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pardubice U19 33.8% 38.7% -4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 24.0% 22.0% +2.0 pp Aligned
Hradec Králové U19 42.2% 39.4% +2.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Pardubice U19 win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.58) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Hradec Králové U19; match finished Pardubice U19
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Pardubice U19 win 3–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pardubice U19 33.8% · Draw 24.0% · Hradec Králové U19 42.2%
    • xG · Pardubice U19 1.67 — Hradec Králové U19 1.91
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pardubice U19 2.30 · Draw 4.05 · Hradec Králové U19 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Pardubice U19 38.7% · Draw 22.0% · Hradec Králové U19 39.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 13, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pardubice U19 2.30 · Draw 4.05 · Hradec Králové U19 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Pardubice U19 38.7% · Draw 22.0% · Hradec Králové U19 39.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 13, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pardubice U19 win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 75/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1494221

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pardubice U19 win · Pardubice U19 3–2 Hradec Králové U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga U19
  • Fixture: Pardubice U19 vs Hradec Králové U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Pardubice U19 1.67 — Hradec Králové U19 1.91 (total xG ≈ 3.58)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga U19 1. Liga U19 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 18 6 5 60
2 Baník Ostrava U19 30 16 6 8 54
3 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 14 6 9 48
4 Karviná U19 30 15 3 12 48
5 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 14 3 13 45
6 Sparta Praha U19 29 14 3 12 45
7 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 13 6 11 45
8 Slavia Praha U19 29 14 2 13 44
9 Dukla Praha U19 29 12 6 11 42
10 České Budějovice U19 29 12 5 12 41
11 Pardubice U19 29 11 6 12 39
12 Slovácko U19 30 11 6 13 39
13 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 10 6 13 36
14 Zlín U19 29 8 8 13 32
15 Slovan Liberec U19 29 8 4 17 28
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 5 4 21 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 70 36 +34 60
2 Slavia Praha U19 29 62 62 0 44
3 Baník Ostrava U19 30 60 50 +10 54
4 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 59 46 +13 48
5 Sparta Praha U19 29 59 53 +6 45
6 České Budějovice U19 29 59 63 -4 41
7 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 55 43 +12 45
8 Karviná U19 30 54 47 +7 48
9 Slovan Liberec U19 29 53 73 -20 28
10 Pardubice U19 29 50 48 +2 39
11 Dukla Praha U19 29 49 51 -2 42
12 Zlín U19 29 47 50 -3 32
13 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 46 43 +3 45
14 Slovácko U19 30 43 53 -10 39
15 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 41 45 -4 36
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 31 75 -44 19
1. Liga U19 Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 Predictions