Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 / Baník Ostrava U19 vs České Budějovice U19

Prediction Audit: Baník Ostrava U19 vs České Budějovice U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baník Ostrava U19 Baník Ostrava U19
Jun 06, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.91
4 1.69
xG Accuracy: 41%
České Budějovice U19 České Budějovice U19

The model missed the final outcome (České Budějovice U19 win 1–4).

The model had projected Baník Ostrava U19 at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Baník Ostrava U19 České Budějovice U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Baník Ostrava U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Baník Ostrava U19 -10.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Baník Ostrava U19 44.3% 55.2% -10.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 23.6% 19.8% +3.8 pp Aligned
České Budějovice U19 32.0% 25.0% +7.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Baník Ostrava U19's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was České Budějovice U19 win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Baník Ostrava U19 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Baník Ostrava U19 by 10.9 percentage points (55.2% vs model 44.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 06, 2026 · 18:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Baník Ostrava U19 44.3% · Draw 23.6% · České Budějovice U19 32.1%
    • xG · Baník Ostrava U19 1.91 — České Budějovice U19 1.69
  2. Jun 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Baník Ostrava U19 1.61 · Draw 4.48 · České Budějovice U19 3.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Baník Ostrava U19 55.2% · Draw 19.8% · České Budějovice U19 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Baník Ostrava U19 1.61 · Draw 4.48 · České Budějovice U19 3.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Baník Ostrava U19 55.2% · Draw 19.8% · České Budějovice U19 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result České Budějovice U19 win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3093592

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result České Budějovice U19 win · Baník Ostrava U19 1–4 České Budějovice U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga U19
  • Fixture: Baník Ostrava U19 vs České Budějovice U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 23.6% · Away 32.1%
  • xG (showing): Baník Ostrava U19 1.91 — České Budějovice U19 1.69 (total xG ≈ 3.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 30.3% · Implied: 20.1% · Probability edge: +10.2 pts · Est. EV: +45.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 70.6% · No 29.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga U19 1. Liga U19 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 18 6 5 60
2 Baník Ostrava U19 30 16 6 8 54
3 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 14 6 9 48
4 Karviná U19 30 15 3 12 48
5 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 14 3 13 45
6 Sparta Praha U19 29 14 3 12 45
7 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 13 6 11 45
8 Slavia Praha U19 29 14 2 13 44
9 Dukla Praha U19 29 12 6 11 42
10 České Budějovice U19 29 12 5 12 41
11 Pardubice U19 29 11 6 12 39
12 Slovácko U19 30 11 6 13 39
13 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 10 6 13 36
14 Zlín U19 29 8 8 13 32
15 Slovan Liberec U19 29 8 4 17 28
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 5 4 21 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 70 36 +34 60
2 Slavia Praha U19 29 62 62 0 44
3 Baník Ostrava U19 30 60 50 +10 54
4 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 59 46 +13 48
5 Sparta Praha U19 29 59 53 +6 45
6 České Budějovice U19 29 59 63 -4 41
7 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 55 43 +12 45
8 Karviná U19 30 54 47 +7 48
9 Slovan Liberec U19 29 53 73 -20 28
10 Pardubice U19 29 50 48 +2 39
11 Dukla Praha U19 29 49 51 -2 42
12 Zlín U19 29 47 50 -3 32
13 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 46 43 +3 45
14 Slovácko U19 30 43 53 -10 39
15 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 41 45 -4 36
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 31 75 -44 19
1. Liga U19 Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 Predictions