Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 / Slovácko U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19

Prediction Audit: Slovácko U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Slovácko U19 Slovácko U19
May 30, 2026 - 09:00
3 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
Baník Ostrava U19 Baník Ostrava U19

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Slovácko U19 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Slovácko U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Baník Ostrava U19 -4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Slovácko U19 41.8% 38.0% +3.8 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 24.9% +0.7 pp Aligned
Baník Ostrava U19 32.6% 37.1% -4.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Slovácko U19; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 3–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Slovácko U19 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Baník Ostrava U19 32.6%
    • xG · Slovácko U19 1.45 — Baník Ostrava U19 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Slovácko U19 2.37 · Draw 3.61 · Baník Ostrava U19 2.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Slovácko U19 38.0% · Draw 24.9% · Baník Ostrava U19 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Slovácko U19 2.37 · Draw 3.61 · Baník Ostrava U19 2.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Slovácko U19 38.0% · Draw 24.9% · Baník Ostrava U19 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 03:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3825532

Closing Odds 2.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Slovácko U19 3–3 Baník Ostrava U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga U19
  • Fixture: Slovácko U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Slovácko U19 1.45 — Baník Ostrava U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 75.2% · Implied: 65.4% · Probability edge: +9.8 pts · Est. EV: +5.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 75.2% · No 24.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga U19 1. Liga U19 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 18 6 5 60
2 Baník Ostrava U19 30 16 6 8 54
3 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 14 6 9 48
4 Karviná U19 30 15 3 12 48
5 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 14 3 13 45
6 Sparta Praha U19 29 14 3 12 45
7 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 13 6 11 45
8 Slavia Praha U19 29 14 2 13 44
9 Dukla Praha U19 29 12 6 11 42
10 České Budějovice U19 29 12 5 12 41
11 Pardubice U19 29 11 6 12 39
12 Slovácko U19 30 11 6 13 39
13 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 10 6 13 36
14 Zlín U19 29 8 8 13 32
15 Slovan Liberec U19 29 8 4 17 28
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 5 4 21 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 70 36 +34 60
2 Slavia Praha U19 29 62 62 0 44
3 Baník Ostrava U19 30 60 50 +10 54
4 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 59 46 +13 48
5 Sparta Praha U19 29 59 53 +6 45
6 České Budějovice U19 29 59 63 -4 41
7 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 55 43 +12 45
8 Karviná U19 30 54 47 +7 48
9 Slovan Liberec U19 29 53 73 -20 28
10 Pardubice U19 29 50 48 +2 39
11 Dukla Praha U19 29 49 51 -2 42
12 Zlín U19 29 47 50 -3 32
13 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 46 43 +3 45
14 Slovácko U19 30 43 53 -10 39
15 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 41 45 -4 36
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 31 75 -44 19
1. Liga U19 Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 Predictions