Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 / Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Hradec Králové U19

Prediction Audit: Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Hradec Králové U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zbrojovka Brno U19 Zbrojovka Brno U19
May 30, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Hradec Králové U19 Hradec Králové U19

The model missed the final outcome (Hradec Králové U19 win 1–4).

The model had projected Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zbrojovka Brno U19 Hradec Králové U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hradec Králové U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hradec Králové U19 -5.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zbrojovka Brno U19 41.8% 36.9% +4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 24.7% +1.0 pp Aligned
Hradec Králové U19 32.6% 38.5% -5.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hradec Králové U19's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hradec Králové U19 win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hradec Králové U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Zbrojovka Brno U19; match finished Hradec Králové U19
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Zbrojovka Brno U19 by 5.9 percentage points (47.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zbrojovka Brno U19 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Hradec Králové U19 32.6%
    • xG · Zbrojovka Brno U19 1.45 — Hradec Králové U19 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zbrojovka Brno U19 2.44 · Draw 3.65 · Hradec Králové U19 2.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Zbrojovka Brno U19 36.9% · Draw 24.7% · Hradec Králové U19 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zbrojovka Brno U19 2.44 · Draw 3.65 · Hradec Králové U19 2.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Zbrojovka Brno U19 36.9% · Draw 24.7% · Hradec Králové U19 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hradec Králové U19 win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9556301

Closing Odds 2.34
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Hradec Králové U19 win · Zbrojovka Brno U19 1–4 Hradec Králové U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga U19
  • Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Hradec Králové U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Zbrojovka Brno U19 1.45 — Hradec Králové U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 77.8% · Implied: 65.2% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +12.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 77.8% · No 22.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Liga U19 1. Liga U19 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 18 6 5 60
2 Baník Ostrava U19 30 16 6 8 54
3 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 14 6 9 48
4 Karviná U19 30 15 3 12 48
5 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 14 3 13 45
6 Sparta Praha U19 29 14 3 12 45
7 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 13 6 11 45
8 Slavia Praha U19 29 14 2 13 44
9 Dukla Praha U19 29 12 6 11 42
10 České Budějovice U19 29 12 5 12 41
11 Pardubice U19 29 11 6 12 39
12 Slovácko U19 30 11 6 13 39
13 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 10 6 13 36
14 Zlín U19 29 8 8 13 32
15 Slovan Liberec U19 29 8 4 17 28
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 5 4 21 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 70 36 +34 60
2 Slavia Praha U19 29 62 62 0 44
3 Baník Ostrava U19 30 60 50 +10 54
4 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 59 46 +13 48
5 Sparta Praha U19 29 59 53 +6 45
6 České Budějovice U19 29 59 63 -4 41
7 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 55 43 +12 45
8 Karviná U19 30 54 47 +7 48
9 Slovan Liberec U19 29 53 73 -20 28
10 Pardubice U19 29 50 48 +2 39
11 Dukla Praha U19 29 49 51 -2 42
12 Zlín U19 29 47 50 -3 32
13 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 46 43 +3 45
14 Slovácko U19 30 43 53 -10 39
15 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 41 45 -4 36
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 31 75 -44 19
1. Liga U19 Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 Predictions