Predictions / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls

Prediction Audit: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

New York City FC New York City FC
Sep 18, 2026 - 23:30
0 1.65
1 1.45
xG Accuracy: 56%
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls

The model missed the final outcome (New York Red Bulls win 0–1).

The model had projected New York City FC at 41.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 New York City FC New York Red Bulls ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices New York City FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: New York City FC -10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
New York City FC 41.1% 51.5% -10.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.5% 24.1% +2.5 pp Aligned
New York Red Bulls 32.4% 24.5% +7.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates New York City FC's win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.1%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was New York Red Bulls win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about New York City FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned New York City FC; match finished New York Red Bulls

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on New York City FC by 10.4 percentage points (51.5% vs model 41.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · New York City FC 41.0% · Draw 26.6% · New York Red Bulls 32.4%
    • xG · New York City FC 1.65 — New York Red Bulls 1.45
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · New York City FC 1.88 · Draw 4.02 · New York Red Bulls 3.95
    • Implied 1X2 · New York City FC 51.5% · Draw 24.1% · New York Red Bulls 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · New York City FC 1.88 · Draw 4.02 · New York Red Bulls 3.95
    • Implied 1X2 · New York City FC 51.5% · Draw 24.1% · New York Red Bulls 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result New York Red Bulls win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8233930

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result New York Red Bulls win · New York City FC 0–1 New York Red Bulls
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 26.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): New York City FC 1.65 — New York Red Bulls 1.45 (total xG ≈ 3.1)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 40.1% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +3.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.2% · No 36.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15 5 6 50
2 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 45
4 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 44
5 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 41
7 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 36
9 Seattle Sounders 26 9 8 9 35
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 32
12 San Diego 27 8 8 11 32
13 Austin 27 7 10 10 31
14 Minnesota United FC 27 7 8 12 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 6 3 17 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 59 26 +33 50
2 FC Dallas 27 50 42 +8 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 49 39 +10 45
4 Portland Timbers 27 48 51 -3 32
5 San Diego 27 47 47 0 32
6 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
7 Los Angeles FC 28 43 30 +13 41
8 Real Salt Lake 27 40 44 -4 32
9 Minnesota United FC 27 40 49 -9 29
10 Colorado Rapids 27 38 38 0 36
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 37 44 -7 36
12 Austin 27 35 47 -12 31
13 Houston Dynamo 27 34 32 +2 44
14 Seattle Sounders 26 33 34 -1 35
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 31 63 -32 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15.4 7.0 +8.4 50
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 27 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 27 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 27 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 27 14.7 12.0 +2.7 32
7 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13.6 13.1 +0.5 45
8 Houston Dynamo 27 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 28 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 27 10.4 11.7 -1.3 47
11 Austin 27 9.5 13.7 -4.2 31
12 Seattle Sounders 26 10.6 15.4 -4.8 35
13 Real Salt Lake 27 14.2 19.2 -5.0 32
14 Sporting Kansas City 26 9.8 18.2 -8.4 21
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 11.2 21.1 -9.9 36
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