Predictions / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / New England Revolution vs New York City FC

Prediction Audit: New England Revolution vs New York City FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

New England Revolution New England Revolution
Aug 23, 2026 - 20:30
1 1.99
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 70%
New York City FC New York City FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected New England Revolution at 52.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 New England Revolution Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates New England Revolution considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: New England Revolution +10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
New England Revolution 52.6% 42.4% +10.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 24.2% 26.4% -2.2 pp Aligned
New York City FC 23.1% 31.2% -8.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates New England Revolution's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 42.4%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on New England Revolution.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned New England Revolution; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on New England Revolution by 10.2 percentage points (42.4% vs model 52.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · New England Revolution 52.6% · Draw 24.2% · New York City FC 23.1%
    • xG · New England Revolution 1.99 — New York City FC 1.28
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · New England Revolution 2.28 · Draw 3.66 · New York City FC 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · New England Revolution 42.4% · Draw 26.4% · New York City FC 31.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · New England Revolution 2.28 · Draw 3.66 · New York City FC 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · New England Revolution 42.4% · Draw 26.4% · New York City FC 31.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4372274

Closing Odds 2.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: New England Revolution vs New York City FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.6% · Draw 24.2% · Away 23.2%
  • xG (showing): New England Revolution 1.99 — New York City FC 1.28 (total xG ≈ 3.27)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): New England Revolution
  • Model: 52.6% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +10.2 pts · Est. EV: +5.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.6% · No 36.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15 5 6 50
2 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 45
4 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 44
5 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 41
7 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 36
9 Seattle Sounders 26 9 8 9 35
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 32
12 San Diego 27 8 8 11 32
13 Austin 27 7 10 10 31
14 Minnesota United FC 27 7 8 12 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 6 3 17 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 59 26 +33 50
2 FC Dallas 27 50 42 +8 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 49 39 +10 45
4 Portland Timbers 27 48 51 -3 32
5 San Diego 27 47 47 0 32
6 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
7 Los Angeles FC 28 43 30 +13 41
8 Real Salt Lake 27 40 44 -4 32
9 Minnesota United FC 27 40 49 -9 29
10 Colorado Rapids 27 38 38 0 36
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 37 44 -7 36
12 Austin 27 35 47 -12 31
13 Houston Dynamo 27 34 32 +2 44
14 Seattle Sounders 26 33 34 -1 35
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 31 63 -32 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15.4 7.0 +8.4 50
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 27 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 27 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 27 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 27 14.7 12.0 +2.7 32
7 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13.6 13.1 +0.5 45
8 Houston Dynamo 27 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 28 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 27 10.4 11.7 -1.3 47
11 Austin 27 9.5 13.7 -4.2 31
12 Seattle Sounders 26 10.6 15.4 -4.8 35
13 Real Salt Lake 27 14.2 19.2 -5.0 32
14 Sporting Kansas City 26 9.8 18.2 -8.4 21
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 11.2 21.1 -9.9 36
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