Predictions / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / DC United vs New England Revolution

Prediction Audit: DC United vs New England Revolution Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

DC United DC United
Aug 19, 2026 - 23:30
0 1.11
3 1.57
xG Accuracy: 50%
New England Revolution New England Revolution

AI correctly predicted the New England Revolution win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices DC United higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: DC United -11.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
DC United 25.3% 36.8% -11.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.2% 26.9% +1.4 pp Aligned
New England Revolution 46.4% 36.4% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates DC United's win probability at 36.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.3%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (New England Revolution win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about DC United than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.68) — 3 goals materialised
  • New England Revolution attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.11)
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced New England Revolution higher (57.8% vs model 46.4%, 11.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (New England Revolution win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 19, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · DC United 25.3% · Draw 28.2% · New England Revolution 46.5%
    • xG · DC United 1.11 — New England Revolution 1.57
  2. Aug 19, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · DC United 2.63 · Draw 3.60 · New England Revolution 2.66
    • Implied 1X2 · DC United 36.8% · Draw 26.9% · New England Revolution 36.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 19, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · DC United 2.63 · Draw 3.60 · New England Revolution 2.66
    • Implied 1X2 · DC United 36.8% · Draw 26.9% · New England Revolution 36.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 19, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result New England Revolution win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3823430

Closing Odds 2.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result New England Revolution win · DC United 0–3 New England Revolution
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: DC United vs New England Revolution
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.3% · Draw 28.2% · Away 46.5%
  • xG (showing): DC United 1.11 — New England Revolution 1.57 (total xG ≈ 2.68)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): New England Revolution
  • Model: 46.5% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.6% · No 45.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 15 4 6 49
2 Houston Dynamo 26 13 5 8 44
3 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
4 FC Dallas 26 12 8 6 44
5 San Jose Earthquakes 26 12 6 8 42
6 Los Angeles FC 27 11 8 8 41
7 Colorado Rapids 26 11 3 12 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 8 9 10 33
9 Portland Timbers 26 9 5 12 32
10 Seattle Sounders 25 8 8 9 32
11 San Diego 26 8 7 11 31
12 Austin 26 7 9 10 30
13 Real Salt Lake 26 8 5 13 29
14 Minnesota United FC 26 7 8 11 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 25 5 3 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 56 23 +33 49
2 FC Dallas 26 49 42 +7 44
3 Portland Timbers 26 47 48 -1 32
4 San Jose Earthquakes 26 46 38 +8 42
5 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
6 San Diego 26 44 44 0 31
7 Los Angeles FC 27 43 29 +14 41
8 Minnesota United FC 26 39 46 -7 29
9 Real Salt Lake 26 37 44 -7 29
10 Colorado Rapids 26 36 35 +1 36
11 Houston Dynamo 26 34 30 +4 44
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 34 42 -8 33
13 Austin 26 32 44 -12 30
14 Seattle Sounders 25 30 33 -3 32
15 Sporting Kansas City 25 29 63 -34 18
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 15.4 7.0 +8.4 49
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 26 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 26 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 26 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 26 14.7 12.0 +2.7 31
7 San Jose Earthquakes 26 13.6 13.1 +0.5 42
8 Houston Dynamo 26 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 27 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 26 10.4 11.7 -1.3 44
11 Austin 26 9.5 13.7 -4.2 30
12 Seattle Sounders 25 10.6 15.4 -4.8 32
13 Real Salt Lake 26 14.2 19.2 -5.0 29
14 Sporting Kansas City 25 9.8 18.2 -8.4 18
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 11.2 21.1 -9.9 33
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