Predictions / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union

Prediction Audit: New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

New York City FC New York City FC
Aug 16, 2026 - 22:00
2 1.04
3 1.75
xG Accuracy: 54%
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union

AI correctly predicted the Philadelphia Union win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices New York City FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: New York City FC -14.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
New York City FC 21.0% 35.7% -14.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.5% 25.8% +0.6 pp Aligned
Philadelphia Union 52.6% 38.4% +14.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates New York City FC's win probability at 35.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 21.0%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Philadelphia Union win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about New York City FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.79) — 5 goals materialised
  • Philadelphia Union attacking xG significantly stronger (1.75 vs 1.04)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Philadelphia Union higher (67.4% vs model 52.6%, 14.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Philadelphia Union win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · New York City FC 20.9% · Draw 26.4% · Philadelphia Union 52.6%
    • xG · New York City FC 1.04 — Philadelphia Union 1.75
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · New York City FC 2.71 · Draw 3.75 · Philadelphia Union 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · New York City FC 35.7% · Draw 25.8% · Philadelphia Union 38.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · New York City FC 2.71 · Draw 3.75 · Philadelphia Union 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · New York City FC 35.7% · Draw 25.8% · Philadelphia Union 38.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Philadelphia Union win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 26/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3616948

Closing Odds 2.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Philadelphia Union win · New York City FC 2–3 Philadelphia Union
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 20.9% · Draw 26.4% · Away 52.6%
  • xG (showing): New York City FC 1.04 — Philadelphia Union 1.75 (total xG ≈ 2.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Philadelphia Union
  • Model: 52.6% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +14.2 pts · Est. EV: +9.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15 5 6 50
2 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 45
4 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 44
5 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 41
7 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 36
9 Seattle Sounders 26 9 8 9 35
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 32
12 San Diego 27 8 8 11 32
13 Austin 27 7 10 10 31
14 Minnesota United FC 27 7 8 12 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 6 3 17 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 59 26 +33 50
2 FC Dallas 27 50 42 +8 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 49 39 +10 45
4 Portland Timbers 27 48 51 -3 32
5 San Diego 27 47 47 0 32
6 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
7 Los Angeles FC 28 43 30 +13 41
8 Real Salt Lake 27 40 44 -4 32
9 Minnesota United FC 27 40 49 -9 29
10 Colorado Rapids 27 38 38 0 36
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 37 44 -7 36
12 Austin 27 35 47 -12 31
13 Houston Dynamo 27 34 32 +2 44
14 Seattle Sounders 26 33 34 -1 35
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 31 63 -32 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15.4 7.0 +8.4 50
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 27 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 27 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 27 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 27 14.7 12.0 +2.7 32
7 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13.6 13.1 +0.5 45
8 Houston Dynamo 27 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 28 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 27 10.4 11.7 -1.3 47
11 Austin 27 9.5 13.7 -4.2 31
12 Seattle Sounders 26 10.6 15.4 -4.8 35
13 Real Salt Lake 27 14.2 19.2 -5.0 32
14 Sporting Kansas City 26 9.8 18.2 -8.4 21
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 11.2 21.1 -9.9 36
Major League Soccer USA. Major League Soccer Predictions