Predictions / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / CF Montreal vs DC United

Prediction Audit: CF Montreal vs DC United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CF Montreal CF Montreal
Aug 15, 2026 - 23:30
1 1.31
1 1.68
xG Accuracy: 76%
DC United DC United

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected DC United at 44.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 DC United Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices CF Montreal higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CF Montreal -15.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CF Montreal 28.5% 44.2% -15.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.8% 26.4% +0.4 pp Aligned
DC United 44.7% 29.5% +15.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates CF Montreal's win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.5%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about CF Montreal than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned DC United; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on DC United by 15.7 percentage points (60.4% vs model 44.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CF Montreal 28.5% · Draw 26.8% · DC United 44.7%
    • xG · CF Montreal 1.31 — DC United 1.68
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CF Montreal 2.19 · Draw 3.67 · DC United 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · CF Montreal 44.2% · Draw 26.4% · DC United 29.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CF Montreal 2.19 · Draw 3.67 · DC United 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · CF Montreal 44.2% · Draw 26.4% · DC United 29.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3370083

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · CF Montreal 1–1 DC United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: CF Montreal vs DC United
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.5% · Draw 26.8% · Away 44.7%
  • xG (showing): CF Montreal 1.31 — DC United 1.68 (total xG ≈ 2.99)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): DC United
  • Model: 44.7% · Implied: 29.5% · Probability edge: +15.2 pts · Est. EV: +8.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 15 4 6 49
2 Houston Dynamo 26 13 5 8 44
3 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
4 FC Dallas 26 12 8 6 44
5 San Jose Earthquakes 26 12 6 8 42
6 Los Angeles FC 27 11 8 8 41
7 Colorado Rapids 26 11 3 12 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 8 9 10 33
9 Portland Timbers 26 9 5 12 32
10 Seattle Sounders 25 8 8 9 32
11 San Diego 26 8 7 11 31
12 Austin 26 7 9 10 30
13 Real Salt Lake 26 8 5 13 29
14 Minnesota United FC 26 7 8 11 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 25 5 3 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 56 23 +33 49
2 FC Dallas 26 49 42 +7 44
3 Portland Timbers 26 47 48 -1 32
4 San Jose Earthquakes 26 46 38 +8 42
5 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
6 San Diego 26 44 44 0 31
7 Los Angeles FC 27 43 29 +14 41
8 Minnesota United FC 26 39 46 -7 29
9 Real Salt Lake 26 37 44 -7 29
10 Colorado Rapids 26 36 35 +1 36
11 Houston Dynamo 26 34 30 +4 44
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 34 42 -8 33
13 Austin 26 32 44 -12 30
14 Seattle Sounders 25 30 33 -3 32
15 Sporting Kansas City 25 29 63 -34 18
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 15.4 7.0 +8.4 49
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 26 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 26 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 26 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 26 14.7 12.0 +2.7 31
7 San Jose Earthquakes 26 13.6 13.1 +0.5 42
8 Houston Dynamo 26 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 27 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 26 10.4 11.7 -1.3 44
11 Austin 26 9.5 13.7 -4.2 30
12 Seattle Sounders 25 10.6 15.4 -4.8 32
13 Real Salt Lake 26 14.2 19.2 -5.0 29
14 Sporting Kansas City 25 9.8 18.2 -8.4 18
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 11.2 21.1 -9.9 33
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