Predictions / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / New York City FC vs Toronto FC

Prediction Audit: New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

New York City FC New York City FC
Jul 31, 2026 - 23:30
1 2.36
1 1.06
xG Accuracy: 68%
Toronto FC Toronto FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected New York City FC at 65.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 New York City FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates New York City FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: New York City FC +7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
New York City FC 65.2% 57.4% +7.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 20.4% 23.0% -2.7 pp Aligned
Toronto FC 14.4% 19.5% -5.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates New York City FC's win probability at 65.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 57.4%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on New York City FC.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned New York City FC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on New York City FC by 7.8 percentage points (57.4% vs model 65.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · New York City FC 65.3% · Draw 20.3% · Toronto FC 14.4%
    • xG · New York City FC 2.36 — Toronto FC 1.06
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · New York City FC 1.68 · Draw 4.19 · Toronto FC 4.94
    • Implied 1X2 · New York City FC 57.4% · Draw 23.0% · Toronto FC 19.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · New York City FC 1.68 · Draw 4.19 · Toronto FC 4.94
    • Implied 1X2 · New York City FC 57.4% · Draw 23.0% · Toronto FC 19.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 69/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (75%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 72/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1680146

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: New York City FC vs Toronto FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 65.3% · Draw 20.3% · Away 14.4%
  • xG (showing): New York City FC 2.36 — Toronto FC 1.06 (total xG ≈ 3.42)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.6% · Over 2.5 66.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.2% · No 39.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.2% · No 39.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 15 4 6 49
2 Houston Dynamo 26 13 5 8 44
3 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
4 FC Dallas 26 12 8 6 44
5 San Jose Earthquakes 26 12 6 8 42
6 Los Angeles FC 27 11 8 8 41
7 Colorado Rapids 26 11 3 12 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 8 9 10 33
9 Portland Timbers 26 9 5 12 32
10 Seattle Sounders 25 8 8 9 32
11 San Diego 26 8 7 11 31
12 Austin 26 7 9 10 30
13 Real Salt Lake 26 8 5 13 29
14 Minnesota United FC 26 7 8 11 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 25 5 3 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 56 23 +33 49
2 FC Dallas 26 49 42 +7 44
3 Portland Timbers 26 47 48 -1 32
4 San Jose Earthquakes 26 46 38 +8 42
5 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
6 San Diego 26 44 44 0 31
7 Los Angeles FC 27 43 29 +14 41
8 Minnesota United FC 26 39 46 -7 29
9 Real Salt Lake 26 37 44 -7 29
10 Colorado Rapids 26 36 35 +1 36
11 Houston Dynamo 26 34 30 +4 44
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 34 42 -8 33
13 Austin 26 32 44 -12 30
14 Seattle Sounders 25 30 33 -3 32
15 Sporting Kansas City 25 29 63 -34 18
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 25 15.4 7.0 +8.4 49
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 26 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 26 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 26 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 26 14.7 12.0 +2.7 31
7 San Jose Earthquakes 26 13.6 13.1 +0.5 42
8 Houston Dynamo 26 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 27 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 26 10.4 11.7 -1.3 44
11 Austin 26 9.5 13.7 -4.2 30
12 Seattle Sounders 25 10.6 15.4 -4.8 32
13 Real Salt Lake 26 14.2 19.2 -5.0 29
14 Sporting Kansas City 25 9.8 18.2 -8.4 18
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 27 11.2 21.1 -9.9 33
Major League Soccer USA. Major League Soccer Predictions