Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie C / Dobrovice vs Čáslav

Prediction Audit: Dobrovice vs Čáslav Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dobrovice Dobrovice
May 23, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 31%
Čáslav Čáslav

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Dobrovice at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dobrovice Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dobrovice; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 20:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Dobrovice 1.45 — Čáslav 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1622783

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dobrovice 0–0 Čáslav
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie C
  • Fixture: Dobrovice vs Čáslav
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Dobrovice 1.45 — Čáslav 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Dobrovice
  • Model: 41.8% · Implied: 8.6% · Probability edge: +33.2 pts · Est. EV: +23.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (9.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie C 4. liga - Divizie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Čáslav 29 20 3 6 63
2 Horní Ředice 29 19 2 8 59
3 Vysoké Mýto 29 17 7 5 58
4 Přepeře 29 17 3 8 55
5 Turnov 29 15 6 8 51
6 Kosmonosy 29 14 7 8 49
7 Trutnov 29 14 5 10 47
8 Chlumec nad Cidlinou 29 12 5 12 41
9 Spartak Police n/Metují 28 10 8 10 38
10 Hlinsko 28 11 2 14 35
11 Brandýs nad Labem 29 7 13 9 34
12 Chrudim II 29 9 6 14 33
13 Svitavy 29 8 7 14 31
14 Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou 29 6 5 18 23
15 Náchod 29 4 5 20 17
16 Dobrovice 29 4 4 21 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Čáslav 29 72 35 +37 63
2 Horní Ředice 29 72 40 +32 59
3 Turnov 29 67 54 +13 51
4 Kosmonosy 29 61 42 +19 49
5 Trutnov 29 61 53 +8 47
6 Hlinsko 28 60 61 -1 35
7 Přepeře 29 58 36 +22 55
8 Vysoké Mýto 29 53 23 +30 58
9 Náchod 29 43 70 -27 17
10 Chlumec nad Cidlinou 29 42 40 +2 41
11 Svitavy 29 42 67 -25 31
12 Brandýs nad Labem 29 41 51 -10 34
13 Chrudim II 29 41 54 -13 33
14 Spartak Police n/Metují 28 39 50 -11 38
15 Dobrovice 29 27 77 -50 16
16 Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou 29 26 49 -23 23
4. liga - Divizie C Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie C Predictions