Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Písek vs Králův Dvůr

Prediction Audit: Písek vs Králův Dvůr Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Písek Písek
May 20, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Králův Dvůr Králův Dvůr

AI correctly predicted the Písek win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Písek Písek ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Písek higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Písek -7.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Písek 41.8% 49.4% -7.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.5% +2.2 pp Aligned
Králův Dvůr 32.6% 27.1% +5.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Písek's win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Písek win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Písek. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Písek higher (49.4% vs model 41.8%, 7.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Písek win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 20, 2026 · 18:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Písek 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Králův Dvůr 32.6%
    • xG · Písek 1.45 — Králův Dvůr 1.25
  2. May 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Písek 1.83 · Draw 3.85 · Králův Dvůr 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Písek 49.4% · Draw 23.5% · Králův Dvůr 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 20, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Písek 1.83 · Draw 3.85 · Králův Dvůr 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Písek 49.4% · Draw 23.5% · Králův Dvůr 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Písek win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 11:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3412211

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Písek win · Písek 3–1 Králův Dvůr
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Písek vs Králův Dvůr
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Písek 1.45 — Králův Dvůr 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 43.8% · Implied: 34.7% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +20.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. liga - CFL A Matches Track Písek Next Match Prediction Track Králův Dvůr Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Písek & Králův Dvůr!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions