Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Motorlet Praha vs Bohemians 1905 II

Prediction Audit: Motorlet Praha vs Bohemians 1905 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Motorlet Praha Motorlet Praha
May 20, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Bohemians 1905 II Bohemians 1905 II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Motorlet Praha at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Motorlet Praha Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Motorlet Praha higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Motorlet Praha -5.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Motorlet Praha 41.8% 46.8% -5.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.4% +1.3 pp Aligned
Bohemians 1905 II 32.6% 28.9% +3.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Motorlet Praha's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Motorlet Praha. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Motorlet Praha by 5.0 percentage points (46.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 20, 2026 · 18:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Motorlet Praha 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bohemians 1905 II 32.6%
    • xG · Motorlet Praha 1.45 — Bohemians 1905 II 1.25
  2. May 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Motorlet Praha 1.93 · Draw 3.71 · Bohemians 1905 II 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Motorlet Praha 46.8% · Draw 24.4% · Bohemians 1905 II 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 20, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Motorlet Praha 1.93 · Draw 3.71 · Bohemians 1905 II 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Motorlet Praha 46.8% · Draw 24.4% · Bohemians 1905 II 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 74/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1776687

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Motorlet Praha 2–2 Bohemians 1905 II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Motorlet Praha vs Bohemians 1905 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Motorlet Praha 1.45 — Bohemians 1905 II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 41.8% · Implied: 38.2% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.2% · No 41.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions