Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Loko Vltavín vs Táborsko II

Prediction Audit: Loko Vltavín vs Táborsko II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Loko Vltavín Loko Vltavín
May 20, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Táborsko II Táborsko II

AI correctly predicted the Loko Vltavín win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Loko Vltavín Loko Vltavín ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Loko Vltavín higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Loko Vltavín -9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Loko Vltavín 41.8% 51.3% -9.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 25.4% +0.2 pp Aligned
Táborsko II 32.6% 23.2% +9.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Loko Vltavín's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Loko Vltavín win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Loko Vltavín. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Loko Vltavín higher (51.4% vs model 41.8%, 9.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Loko Vltavín win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 20, 2026 · 18:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Loko Vltavín 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Táborsko II 32.6%
    • xG · Loko Vltavín 1.45 — Táborsko II 1.25
  2. May 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Loko Vltavín 1.76 · Draw 3.55 · Táborsko II 3.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Loko Vltavín 51.3% · Draw 25.4% · Táborsko II 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 20, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Loko Vltavín 1.76 · Draw 3.55 · Táborsko II 3.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Loko Vltavín 51.3% · Draw 25.4% · Táborsko II 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Loko Vltavín win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 52/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 06:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7596760

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Loko Vltavín win · Loko Vltavín 1–0 Táborsko II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Loko Vltavín vs Táborsko II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Loko Vltavín 1.45 — Táborsko II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 61.2% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +17.9 pts · Est. EV: +34.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.8% · No 61.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions