Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Kladno vs Petřín Plzeň

Prediction Audit: Kladno vs Petřín Plzeň Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kladno Kladno
May 06, 2026 - 15:30
5 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Petřín Plzeň Petřín Plzeň

AI correctly predicted the Kladno win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kladno Kladno ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kladno higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kladno -42.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kladno 41.8% 84.6% -42.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 9.6% +16.1 pp Model Edge
Petřín Plzeň 32.6% 5.8% +26.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Kladno's win probability at 84.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 42.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kladno win 5–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kladno higher (84.7% vs model 41.8%, 42.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kladno win 5–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kladno 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Petřín Plzeň 32.6%
    • xG · Kladno 1.45 — Petřín Plzeň 1.25
  2. May 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kladno 1.08 · Draw 9.53 · Petřín Plzeň 15.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Kladno 84.6% · Draw 9.6% · Petřín Plzeň 5.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kladno 1.08 · Draw 9.53 · Petřín Plzeň 15.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Kladno 84.6% · Draw 9.6% · Petřín Plzeň 5.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 06, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kladno win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (43 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 00:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2547183

Closing Odds 1.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kladno win · Kladno 5–1 Petřín Plzeň
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Kladno; market prices Kladno instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Kladno 1.45 xG vs Petřín Plzeň 1.25 → Kladno 41.8%
  • Market: Kladno ~84.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 31.2% · Over 2.5 68.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.2% · No 33.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions