Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Králův Dvůr vs Loko Vltavín

Prediction Audit: Králův Dvůr vs Loko Vltavín Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Králův Dvůr Králův Dvůr
May 06, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 27%
Loko Vltavín Loko Vltavín

AI correctly predicted the Králův Dvůr win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Králův Dvůr Králův Dvůr ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Králův Dvůr higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Králův Dvůr -12.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Králův Dvůr 41.8% 54.7% -12.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.6% +2.1 pp Aligned
Loko Vltavín 32.6% 21.7% +10.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Králův Dvůr's win probability at 54.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Králův Dvůr win 5–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Králův Dvůr than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Králův Dvůr higher (54.8% vs model 41.8%, 12.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Králův Dvůr win 5–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Králův Dvůr 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Loko Vltavín 32.6%
    • xG · Králův Dvůr 1.45 — Loko Vltavín 1.25
  2. May 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Králův Dvůr 1.65 · Draw 3.83 · Loko Vltavín 4.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Králův Dvůr 54.7% · Draw 23.6% · Loko Vltavín 21.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Králův Dvůr 1.65 · Draw 3.83 · Loko Vltavín 4.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Králův Dvůr 54.7% · Draw 23.6% · Loko Vltavín 21.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Králův Dvůr win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 07:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3031529

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Králův Dvůr win · Králův Dvůr 5–0 Loko Vltavín
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Králův Dvůr vs Loko Vltavín
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Králův Dvůr 1.45 — Loko Vltavín 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): draw
  • Model: 45.0% · Implied: 23.6% · Probability edge: +21.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.4% · No 38.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. liga - CFL A Matches Track Králův Dvůr Next Match Prediction Track Loko Vltavín Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Králův Dvůr & Loko Vltavín!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions