Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Dukla Praha II vs Slavia III

Prediction Audit: Dukla Praha II vs Slavia III Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dukla Praha II Dukla Praha II
May 06, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Slavia III Slavia III

The model missed the final outcome (Slavia III win 1–3).

The model had projected Dukla Praha II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dukla Praha II Slavia III ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Slavia III higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Slavia III -5.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dukla Praha II 41.8% 37.8% +3.9 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 24.5% +1.2 pp Aligned
Slavia III 32.6% 37.7% -5.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Slavia III's win probability at 37.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Slavia III win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Slavia III. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Dukla Praha II; match finished Slavia III

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dukla Praha II by 5.1 percentage points (46.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dukla Praha II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Slavia III 32.6%
    • xG · Dukla Praha II 1.45 — Slavia III 1.25
  2. May 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dukla Praha II 2.39 · Draw 3.69 · Slavia III 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Dukla Praha II 37.8% · Draw 24.5% · Slavia III 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dukla Praha II 2.39 · Draw 3.69 · Slavia III 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Dukla Praha II 37.8% · Draw 24.5% · Slavia III 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slavia III win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 74/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 06:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1828058

Closing Odds 2.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slavia III win · Dukla Praha II 1–3 Slavia III
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Dukla Praha II vs Slavia III
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Dukla Praha II 1.45 — Slavia III 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): draw
  • Model: 45.0% · Implied: 24.5% · Probability edge: +20.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.2% · No 32.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions