Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Jiskra Domažlice vs Kladno

Prediction Audit: Jiskra Domažlice vs Kladno Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jiskra Domažlice Jiskra Domažlice
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Kladno Kladno

AI correctly predicted the Jiskra Domažlice win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jiskra Domažlice Jiskra Domažlice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Jiskra Domažlice considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Jiskra Domažlice +6.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jiskra Domažlice 41.8% 35.1% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.4% -0.8 pp Aligned
Kladno 32.6% 38.4% -5.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Jiskra Domažlice's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.1%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Jiskra Domažlice win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Jiskra Domažlice.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Jiskra Domažlice more conservatively (35.2% vs model 41.8%, 6.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Jiskra Domažlice win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jiskra Domažlice 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Kladno 32.6%
    • xG · Jiskra Domažlice 1.45 — Kladno 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jiskra Domažlice 2.56 · Draw 3.40 · Kladno 2.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Jiskra Domažlice 35.1% · Draw 26.4% · Kladno 38.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Jiskra Domažlice 2.56 · Draw 3.40 · Kladno 2.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Jiskra Domažlice 35.1% · Draw 26.4% · Kladno 38.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jiskra Domažlice win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 03:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1675185

Closing Odds 2.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jiskra Domažlice win · Jiskra Domažlice 2–0 Kladno
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Jiskra Domažlice vs Kladno
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Jiskra Domažlice 1.45 — Kladno 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 78.9% · Implied: 60.5% · Probability edge: +18.4 pts · Est. EV: +16.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.9% · No 21.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions