The model missed the final outcome (Sportivo Luqueno win 1–2).
The model had projected Club Guarani at 57.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Club Guarani Sportivo Luqueno ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Guarani | 57.6% | 45.5% | +12.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.2% | 30.2% | -7.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Sportivo Luqueno | 20.2% | 24.4% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Club Guarani's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 45.5%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sportivo Luqueno win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Club Guarani.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.50) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Club Guarani; match finished Sportivo Luqueno
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Club Guarani by 12.1 percentage points (45.5% vs model 57.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Club Guarani 57.5% · Draw 22.2% · Sportivo Luqueno 20.2%
- xG · Club Guarani 2.22 — Sportivo Luqueno 1.28
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Club Guarani 2.09 · Draw 3.15 · Sportivo Luqueno 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · Club Guarani 45.5% · Draw 30.2% · Sportivo Luqueno 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Club Guarani 2.09 · Draw 3.15 · Sportivo Luqueno 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · Club Guarani 45.5% · Draw 30.2% · Sportivo Luqueno 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sportivo Luqueno win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 67.7%
- Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio NU | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
