The model missed the final outcome (Sportivo Trinidense win 1–2).
The model had projected Cerro Porteno at 61.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Cerro Porteno Sportivo Trinidense ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Porteno | 61.3% | 47.5% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 24.6% | 31.0% | -6.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 14.1% | 21.5% | -7.4 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Cerro Porteno's win probability at 61.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 47.5%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sportivo Trinidense win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cerro Porteno.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.87) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Cerro Porteno; match finished Sportivo Trinidense
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cerro Porteno by 13.8 percentage points (47.5% vs model 61.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cerro Porteno 61.3% · Draw 24.6% · Sportivo Trinidense 14.1%
- xG · Cerro Porteno 2.10 — Sportivo Trinidense 0.77
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cerro Porteno 2.00 · Draw 3.07 · Sportivo Trinidense 4.42
- Implied 1X2 · Cerro Porteno 47.5% · Draw 31.0% · Sportivo Trinidense 21.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cerro Porteno 2.00 · Draw 3.07 · Sportivo Trinidense 4.42
- Implied 1X2 · Cerro Porteno 47.5% · Draw 31.0% · Sportivo Trinidense 21.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sportivo Trinidense win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (56%+)
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio NU | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
