Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest / Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil

Prediction Audit: Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Septemvri Simitli Septemvri Simitli
May 29, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Kyustendil Kyustendil

AI correctly predicted the Septemvri Simitli win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Septemvri Simitli Septemvri Simitli ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Septemvri Simitli win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Septemvri Simitli 1.45 — Kyustendil 1.25
  2. May 29, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Septemvri Simitli win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2069123

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Septemvri Simitli win · Septemvri Simitli 2–0 Kyustendil
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Third League - Southwest
  • Fixture: Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Septemvri Simitli 1.45 — Kyustendil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS No (Yes 45.7% · No 54.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.7% · No 54.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southwest Third League - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rilski Sportist 34 25 5 4 80
2 Strumska Slava 34 20 5 9 65
3 Slavia Sofia II 34 17 6 11 57
4 Botev Ihtiman 34 14 9 11 51
5 Kyustendil 34 15 5 14 50
6 CSKA Sofia III 34 15 5 14 50
7 Oborishte 34 14 7 13 49
8 Balkan Botevgrad 34 13 10 11 49
9 Septemvri Sofia II 34 13 9 12 48
10 Septemvri Simitli 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kostinbrod 34 14 5 15 47
12 Pirin Razlog 34 13 6 15 45
13 Bansko 34 11 11 12 44
14 Slivnishki geroy 34 11 9 14 42
15 Levski Sofia II 34 11 7 16 40
16 Pirin Gotse Delchev 34 11 4 19 37
17 Germaneya 34 4 6 24 18
18 Vitosha Bistritsa 34 11 5 18 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strumska Slava 34 71 45 +26 65
2 Slavia Sofia II 34 68 44 +24 57
3 Rilski Sportist 34 58 23 +35 80
4 Botev Ihtiman 34 53 40 +13 51
5 Septemvri Sofia II 34 50 43 +7 48
6 Balkan Botevgrad 34 50 45 +5 49
7 CSKA Sofia III 34 49 43 +6 50
8 Kyustendil 34 49 52 -3 50
9 Kostinbrod 34 47 51 -4 47
10 Vitosha Bistritsa 34 44 62 -18 0
11 Oborishte 34 43 37 +6 49
12 Pirin Razlog 34 43 48 -5 45
13 Pirin Gotse Delchev 34 43 70 -27 37
14 Septemvri Simitli 34 41 40 +1 47
15 Slivnishki geroy 34 40 49 -9 42
16 Bansko 34 39 45 -6 44
17 Germaneya 34 38 75 -37 18
18 Levski Sofia II 34 30 44 -14 40
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest Predictions