The model missed the final outcome (Sweden win 1–3).
The model had projected Ukraine at 48.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ukraine Sweden ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.64) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Ukraine; match finished Sweden
Market lesson
The full-time result was Sweden win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Ukraine 1.59 — Sweden 1.05
-
Mar 26, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sweden win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
2.07
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sweden win · Ukraine 1–3 Sweden
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 48.3%
- Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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World Cup - Qualification Europe — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Northern Ireland | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Northern Ireland | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 | Slovakia | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | +2.2 | 15 |
| 2 | Northern Ireland | 6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | +0.3 | 9 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 6 | 2.1 | 3.8 | -1.7 | 12 |
