Prediction Audit: Vratimov vs Šumperk Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vratimov

Jun 13, 2026 - 08:15

2 1.68

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 63%

Šumperk

AI correctly predicted the Vratimov win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vratimov Vratimov ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Vratimov win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 13, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Vratimov 1.68 — Šumperk 1.36
Jun 13, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Vratimov win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3069244

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vratimov win · Vratimov 2–0 Šumperk

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 4. liga - Divizie F
Fixture: Vratimov vs Šumperk
Kickoff: 2026-06-13 08:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Vratimov 1.68 — Šumperk 1.36 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie F — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Havířov	29	19	2	8	59
2	Vratimov	29	17	3	9	54
3	Bospor Bohumín	29	15	8	6	53
4	Bílovec	29	15	8	6	53
5	Stonava	29	14	6	9	48
6	Valašské Meziříčí	29	11	8	10	41
7	Zabreh	30	9	12	9	39
8	Šumperk	29	9	12	8	39
9	Opava II	30	11	5	14	38
10	Frýdlant	30	9	11	10	38
11	Jiskra Rýmařov	30	11	4	15	37
12	Petřvald na Moravě	29	9	9	11	36
13	Nový Jičín	29	8	12	9	36
14	Břidličná	30	7	10	13	31
15	Pustá Polom	29	5	9	15	24
16	Cesky Tesin	29	2	7	20	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bospor Bohumín	29	76	48	+28	53
2	Havířov	29	74	36	+38	59
3	Bílovec	29	62	48	+14	53
4	Valašské Meziříčí	29	59	63	-4	41
5	Vratimov	29	54	39	+15	54
6	Stonava	29	54	44	+10	48
7	Opava II	30	52	55	-3	38
8	Petřvald na Moravě	29	49	46	+3	36
9	Zabreh	30	45	42	+3	39
10	Frýdlant	30	45	54	-9	38
11	Jiskra Rýmařov	30	45	58	-13	37
12	Šumperk	29	36	38	-2	39
13	Pustá Polom	29	36	59	-23	24
14	Nový Jičín	29	35	40	-5	36
15	Břidličná	30	34	46	-12	31
16	Cesky Tesin	29	23	64	-41	13