Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E / Skaštice vs Uherský Brod

Prediction Audit: Skaštice vs Uherský Brod Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Skaštice Skaštice
May 29, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Uherský Brod Uherský Brod

The model missed the final outcome (Uherský Brod win 1–4).

The model had projected Skaštice at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skaštice Uherský Brod ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 1-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Uherský Brod higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Uherský Brod -27.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Skaštice 41.8% 19.2% +22.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 21.1% +4.5 pp Aligned
Uherský Brod 32.6% 59.7% -27.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Uherský Brod's win probability at 59.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 27.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Uherský Brod win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Skaštice; match finished Uherský Brod
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Skaštice by 27.1 percentage points (68.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 31, 2026 · 18:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Skaštice 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Uherský Brod 32.6%
    • xG · Skaštice 1.45 — Uherský Brod 1.25
  2. May 31, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Skaštice 4.61 · Draw 4.18 · Uherský Brod 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Skaštice 19.2% · Draw 21.1% · Uherský Brod 59.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 31, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Skaštice 4.61 · Draw 4.18 · Uherský Brod 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Skaštice 19.2% · Draw 21.1% · Uherský Brod 59.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 29, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Uherský Brod win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 12:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3173141

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Uherský Brod win · Skaštice 1–4 Uherský Brod
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie E
  • Fixture: Skaštice vs Uherský Brod
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-31 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Skaštice 1.45 — Uherský Brod 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 57.6% · Implied: 46.7% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (13.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie E 4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uherský Brod 27 21 6 0 69
2 Kozlovice 28 16 8 4 56
3 Tatran Všechovice 28 17 5 7 53
4 Strání 27 16 3 8 51
5 Sokol Lanžhot 26 13 6 7 45
6 Slavičín 27 13 6 9 45
7 Brumov 27 13 4 10 43
8 Bzenec 27 13 2 12 41
9 Baťov 27 9 7 11 34
10 Břeclav 28 10 3 15 33
11 Kroměříž II 28 8 3 17 27
12 Holešov 27 6 6 15 24
13 Šternberk 28 5 7 16 22
14 Nové Sady 26 3 8 15 17
15 Skaštice 27 3 4 20 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Všechovice 28 67 38 +29 53
2 Kozlovice 28 59 30 +29 56
3 Bzenec 27 59 52 +7 41
4 Uherský Brod 27 55 14 +41 69
5 Strání 27 54 32 +22 51
6 Sokol Lanžhot 26 45 25 +20 45
7 Brumov 27 42 34 +8 43
8 Slavičín 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Holešov 27 39 53 -14 24
10 Břeclav 28 36 50 -14 33
11 Šternberk 28 35 54 -19 22
12 Baťov 27 31 41 -10 34
13 Kroměříž II 28 30 55 -25 27
14 Nové Sady 26 27 53 -26 17
15 Skaštice 27 24 78 -54 13
4. liga - Divizie E Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E Predictions