Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E / Bzenec vs Holešov

Prediction Audit: Bzenec vs Holešov Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bzenec Bzenec
May 30, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Holešov Holešov

AI correctly predicted the Bzenec win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bzenec Bzenec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Bzenec higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bzenec -8.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bzenec 41.8% 50.5% -8.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.9% +4.7 pp Aligned
Holešov 32.6% 28.6% +4.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Bzenec's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bzenec win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bzenec. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bzenec higher (50.5% vs model 41.8%, 8.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bzenec win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 31, 2026 · 18:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bzenec 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Holešov 32.6%
    • xG · Bzenec 1.45 — Holešov 1.25
  2. May 31, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bzenec 1.76 · Draw 4.24 · Holešov 3.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Bzenec 50.5% · Draw 20.9% · Holešov 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 31, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bzenec 1.76 · Draw 4.24 · Holešov 3.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Bzenec 50.5% · Draw 20.9% · Holešov 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bzenec win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 56/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3369845

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bzenec win · Bzenec 2–0 Holešov
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie E
  • Fixture: Bzenec vs Holešov
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-31 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bzenec 1.45 — Holešov 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 39.2% · Implied: 31.4% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +19.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie E 4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uherský Brod 27 21 6 0 69
2 Kozlovice 28 16 8 4 56
3 Tatran Všechovice 28 17 5 7 53
4 Strání 27 16 3 8 51
5 Sokol Lanžhot 26 13 6 7 45
6 Slavičín 27 13 6 9 45
7 Brumov 27 13 4 10 43
8 Bzenec 27 13 2 12 41
9 Baťov 27 9 7 11 34
10 Břeclav 28 10 3 15 33
11 Kroměříž II 28 8 3 17 27
12 Holešov 27 6 6 15 24
13 Šternberk 28 5 7 16 22
14 Nové Sady 26 3 8 15 17
15 Skaštice 27 3 4 20 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Všechovice 28 67 38 +29 53
2 Kozlovice 28 59 30 +29 56
3 Bzenec 27 59 52 +7 41
4 Uherský Brod 27 55 14 +41 69
5 Strání 27 54 32 +22 51
6 Sokol Lanžhot 26 45 25 +20 45
7 Brumov 27 42 34 +8 43
8 Slavičín 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Holešov 27 39 53 -14 24
10 Břeclav 28 36 50 -14 33
11 Šternberk 28 35 54 -19 22
12 Baťov 27 31 41 -10 34
13 Kroměříž II 28 30 55 -25 27
14 Nové Sady 26 27 53 -26 17
15 Skaštice 27 24 78 -54 13
4. liga - Divizie E Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E Predictions