Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E / Holešov vs Nové Sady

Prediction Audit: Holešov vs Nové Sady Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Holešov Holešov
May 23, 2026 - 15:00
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Nové Sady Nové Sady

AI correctly predicted the Holešov win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Holešov Holešov ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Holešov higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Holešov -15.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Holešov 41.8% 56.9% -15.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.8% +2.9 pp Aligned
Nové Sady 32.6% 20.4% +12.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Holešov's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Holešov win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Holešov than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Holešov higher (56.9% vs model 41.8%, 15.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Holešov win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Holešov 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Nové Sady 32.6%
    • xG · Holešov 1.45 — Nové Sady 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Holešov 1.56 · Draw 3.90 · Nové Sady 4.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Holešov 56.9% · Draw 22.8% · Nové Sady 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Holešov 1.56 · Draw 3.90 · Nové Sady 4.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Holešov 56.9% · Draw 22.8% · Nové Sady 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Holešov win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 07:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3030958

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Holešov win · Holešov 4–0 Nové Sady
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie E
  • Fixture: Holešov vs Nové Sady
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Holešov 1.45 — Nové Sady 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS No (Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie E 4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uherský Brod 27 21 6 0 69
2 Kozlovice 28 16 8 4 56
3 Tatran Všechovice 28 17 5 7 53
4 Strání 27 16 3 8 51
5 Sokol Lanžhot 26 13 6 7 45
6 Slavičín 27 13 6 9 45
7 Brumov 27 13 4 10 43
8 Bzenec 27 13 2 12 41
9 Baťov 27 9 7 11 34
10 Břeclav 28 10 3 15 33
11 Kroměříž II 28 8 3 17 27
12 Holešov 27 6 6 15 24
13 Šternberk 28 5 7 16 22
14 Nové Sady 26 3 8 15 17
15 Skaštice 27 3 4 20 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Všechovice 28 67 38 +29 53
2 Kozlovice 28 59 30 +29 56
3 Bzenec 27 59 52 +7 41
4 Uherský Brod 27 55 14 +41 69
5 Strání 27 54 32 +22 51
6 Sokol Lanžhot 26 45 25 +20 45
7 Brumov 27 42 34 +8 43
8 Slavičín 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Holešov 27 39 53 -14 24
10 Břeclav 28 36 50 -14 33
11 Šternberk 28 35 54 -19 22
12 Baťov 27 31 41 -10 34
13 Kroměříž II 28 30 55 -25 27
14 Nové Sady 26 27 53 -26 17
15 Skaštice 27 24 78 -54 13
4. liga - Divizie E Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E Predictions