Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E / Uherský Brod vs Slavičín

Prediction Audit: Uherský Brod vs Slavičín Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uherský Brod Uherský Brod
May 15, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Slavičín Slavičín

AI correctly predicted the Uherský Brod win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Uherský Brod Uherský Brod ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Uherský Brod higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Uherský Brod -28.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Uherský Brod 41.8% 70.4% -28.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 17.8% +7.9 pp Model Higher
Slavičín 32.6% 11.8% +20.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Uherský Brod's win probability at 70.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 28.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Uherský Brod win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Uherský Brod higher (70.5% vs model 41.8%, 28.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Uherský Brod win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Uherský Brod 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Slavičín 32.6%
    • xG · Uherský Brod 1.45 — Slavičín 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 1.26 · Draw 4.99 · Slavičín 7.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 70.4% · Draw 17.8% · Slavičín 11.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 1.26 · Draw 4.99 · Slavičín 7.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 70.4% · Draw 17.8% · Slavičín 11.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Uherský Brod win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 11:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2986143

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Uherský Brod win · Uherský Brod 2–1 Slavičín
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie E
  • Fixture: Uherský Brod vs Slavičín
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Uherský Brod 1.45 — Slavičín 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.7% · Over 2.5 44.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 83.2% · No 16.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 83.2% · No 16.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.8%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 4. liga - Divizie E Matches Track Uherský Brod Next Match Prediction Track Slavičín Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Uherský Brod & Slavičín!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
4. liga - Divizie E 4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uherský Brod 27 21 6 0 69
2 Kozlovice 28 16 8 4 56
3 Tatran Všechovice 28 17 5 7 53
4 Strání 27 16 3 8 51
5 Sokol Lanžhot 26 13 6 7 45
6 Slavičín 27 13 6 9 45
7 Brumov 27 13 4 10 43
8 Bzenec 27 13 2 12 41
9 Baťov 27 9 7 11 34
10 Břeclav 28 10 3 15 33
11 Kroměříž II 28 8 3 17 27
12 Holešov 27 6 6 15 24
13 Šternberk 28 5 7 16 22
14 Nové Sady 26 3 8 15 17
15 Skaštice 27 3 4 20 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Všechovice 28 67 38 +29 53
2 Kozlovice 28 59 30 +29 56
3 Bzenec 27 59 52 +7 41
4 Uherský Brod 27 55 14 +41 69
5 Strání 27 54 32 +22 51
6 Sokol Lanžhot 26 45 25 +20 45
7 Brumov 27 42 34 +8 43
8 Slavičín 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Holešov 27 39 53 -14 24
10 Břeclav 28 36 50 -14 33
11 Šternberk 28 35 54 -19 22
12 Baťov 27 31 41 -10 34
13 Kroměříž II 28 30 55 -25 27
14 Nové Sady 26 27 53 -26 17
15 Skaštice 27 24 78 -54 13
4. liga - Divizie E Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E Predictions