Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E / Bzenec vs Tatran Všechovice

Prediction Audit: Bzenec vs Tatran Všechovice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bzenec Bzenec
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 31%
Tatran Všechovice Tatran Všechovice

The model missed the final outcome (Tatran Všechovice win 3–4).

The model had projected Bzenec at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bzenec Tatran Všechovice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tatran Všechovice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tatran Všechovice -10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bzenec 41.8% 32.1% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 25.1% +0.5 pp Aligned
Tatran Všechovice 32.6% 42.8% -10.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tatran Všechovice's win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tatran Všechovice win 3–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tatran Všechovice than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Bzenec; match finished Tatran Všechovice
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bzenec by 10.2 percentage points (52.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bzenec 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Tatran Všechovice 32.6%
    • xG · Bzenec 1.45 — Tatran Všechovice 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bzenec 2.77 · Draw 3.54 · Tatran Všechovice 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Bzenec 32.1% · Draw 25.1% · Tatran Všechovice 42.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bzenec 2.77 · Draw 3.54 · Tatran Všechovice 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Bzenec 32.1% · Draw 25.1% · Tatran Všechovice 42.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tatran Všechovice win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 09:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3038861

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tatran Všechovice win · Bzenec 3–4 Tatran Všechovice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie E
  • Fixture: Bzenec vs Tatran Všechovice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bzenec 1.45 — Tatran Všechovice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 23.8% · Over 2.5 76.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 71.7% · No 28.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 71.7% · No 28.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie E 4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uherský Brod 27 21 6 0 69
2 Kozlovice 28 16 8 4 56
3 Tatran Všechovice 28 17 5 7 53
4 Strání 27 16 3 8 51
5 Sokol Lanžhot 26 13 6 7 45
6 Slavičín 27 13 6 9 45
7 Brumov 27 13 4 10 43
8 Bzenec 27 13 2 12 41
9 Baťov 27 9 7 11 34
10 Břeclav 28 10 3 15 33
11 Kroměříž II 28 8 3 17 27
12 Holešov 27 6 6 15 24
13 Šternberk 28 5 7 16 22
14 Nové Sady 26 3 8 15 17
15 Skaštice 27 3 4 20 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Všechovice 28 67 38 +29 53
2 Kozlovice 28 59 30 +29 56
3 Bzenec 27 59 52 +7 41
4 Uherský Brod 27 55 14 +41 69
5 Strání 27 54 32 +22 51
6 Sokol Lanžhot 26 45 25 +20 45
7 Brumov 27 42 34 +8 43
8 Slavičín 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Holešov 27 39 53 -14 24
10 Břeclav 28 36 50 -14 33
11 Šternberk 28 35 54 -19 22
12 Baťov 27 31 41 -10 34
13 Kroměříž II 28 30 55 -25 27
14 Nové Sady 26 27 53 -26 17
15 Skaštice 27 24 78 -54 13
4. liga - Divizie E Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E Predictions