Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E / Sokol Lanžhot vs Skaštice

Prediction Audit: Sokol Lanžhot vs Skaštice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sokol Lanžhot Sokol Lanžhot
May 10, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Skaštice Skaštice

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Sokol Lanžhot at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sokol Lanžhot Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-0, 1-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sokol Lanžhot higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sokol Lanžhot -37.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sokol Lanžhot 41.8% 79.2% -37.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 12.9% +12.8 pp Model Edge
Skaštice 32.6% 7.8% +24.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sokol Lanžhot's win probability at 79.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 37.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sokol Lanžhot; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sokol Lanžhot by 37.5 percentage points (79.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sokol Lanžhot 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Skaštice 32.6%
    • xG · Sokol Lanžhot 1.45 — Skaštice 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sokol Lanžhot 1.12 · Draw 6.88 · Skaštice 11.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokol Lanžhot 79.2% · Draw 12.9% · Skaštice 7.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sokol Lanžhot 1.12 · Draw 6.88 · Skaštice 11.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokol Lanžhot 79.2% · Draw 12.9% · Skaštice 7.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (37 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3432962

Closing Odds 1.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sokol Lanžhot 0–0 Skaštice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sokol Lanžhot; market prices Sokol Lanžhot instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Sokol Lanžhot 1.45 xG vs Skaštice 1.25 → Sokol Lanžhot 41.8%
  • Market: Sokol Lanžhot ~79.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS No (Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie E 4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uherský Brod 27 21 6 0 69
2 Kozlovice 28 16 8 4 56
3 Tatran Všechovice 28 17 5 7 53
4 Strání 27 16 3 8 51
5 Sokol Lanžhot 26 13 6 7 45
6 Slavičín 27 13 6 9 45
7 Brumov 27 13 4 10 43
8 Bzenec 27 13 2 12 41
9 Baťov 27 9 7 11 34
10 Břeclav 28 10 3 15 33
11 Kroměříž II 28 8 3 17 27
12 Holešov 27 6 6 15 24
13 Šternberk 28 5 7 16 22
14 Nové Sady 26 3 8 15 17
15 Skaštice 27 3 4 20 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Všechovice 28 67 38 +29 53
2 Kozlovice 28 59 30 +29 56
3 Bzenec 27 59 52 +7 41
4 Uherský Brod 27 55 14 +41 69
5 Strání 27 54 32 +22 51
6 Sokol Lanžhot 26 45 25 +20 45
7 Brumov 27 42 34 +8 43
8 Slavičín 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Holešov 27 39 53 -14 24
10 Břeclav 28 36 50 -14 33
11 Šternberk 28 35 54 -19 22
12 Baťov 27 31 41 -10 34
13 Kroměříž II 28 30 55 -25 27
14 Nové Sady 26 27 53 -26 17
15 Skaštice 27 24 78 -54 13
4. liga - Divizie E Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E Predictions