Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D / Chotebor vs Kuřim

Prediction Audit: Chotebor vs Kuřim Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chotebor Chotebor
May 30, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Kuřim Kuřim

AI correctly predicted the Chotebor win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chotebor Chotebor ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kuřim higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kuřim -19.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chotebor 41.8% 22.8% +18.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.0% +0.6 pp Aligned
Kuřim 32.6% 52.1% -19.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kuřim's win probability at 52.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Chotebor win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kuřim than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Chotebor higher (61.4% vs model 41.8%, 19.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Chotebor win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 31, 2026 · 18:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chotebor 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Kuřim 32.6%
    • xG · Chotebor 1.45 — Kuřim 1.25
  2. May 31, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chotebor 3.88 · Draw 3.54 · Kuřim 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Chotebor 22.8% · Draw 25.0% · Kuřim 52.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 31, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chotebor 3.88 · Draw 3.54 · Kuřim 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Chotebor 22.8% · Draw 25.0% · Kuřim 52.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chotebor win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 04:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3503421

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chotebor win · Chotebor 1–0 Kuřim
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie D
  • Fixture: Chotebor vs Kuřim
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-31 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Chotebor 1.45 — Kuřim 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 48.7% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +5.1 pts · Est. EV: +4.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.3% · No 48.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 4. liga - Divizie D Matches Track Chotebor Next Match Prediction Track Kuřim Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Chotebor & Kuřim!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
4. liga - Divizie D 4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 22 4 3 70
2 Tatran Bohunice 30 18 6 6 60
3 Kuřim 29 16 7 6 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 15 6 8 51
5 Znojmo 30 14 6 10 48
6 Velké Meziříčí 29 12 7 10 43
7 Pelhřimov 29 11 7 11 40
8 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 11 6 12 39
9 Sokol Tasovice 29 10 7 12 37
10 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 10 6 13 36
11 Chotebor 29 10 4 15 34
12 Sparta Brno 29 9 4 16 31
13 Havlíčkův Brod 29 7 7 15 28
14 Humpolec 29 8 4 17 28
15 FS Třebíč 29 5 12 12 27
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 7 3 19 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 91 26 +65 70
2 Znojmo 30 62 37 +25 48
3 Kuřim 29 58 28 +30 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 58 38 +20 51
5 Velké Meziříčí 29 52 48 +4 43
6 Sparta Brno 29 52 55 -3 31
7 Pelhřimov 29 47 59 -12 40
8 Sokol Tasovice 29 44 59 -15 37
9 Humpolec 29 43 55 -12 28
10 Tatran Bohunice 30 41 24 +17 60
11 Havlíčkův Brod 29 39 48 -9 28
12 FS Třebíč 29 33 58 -25 27
13 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 32 52 -20 36
14 Chotebor 29 32 54 -22 34
15 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 30 41 -11 39
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 24 56 -32 24
4. liga - Divizie D Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D Predictions