Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D / Tatran Bohunice vs Dálnice Speřice

Prediction Audit: Tatran Bohunice vs Dálnice Speřice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tatran Bohunice Tatran Bohunice
May 16, 2026 - 08:15
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Dálnice Speřice Dálnice Speřice

AI correctly predicted the Tatran Bohunice win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tatran Bohunice Tatran Bohunice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tatran Bohunice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tatran Bohunice -38.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tatran Bohunice 41.8% 80.1% -38.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 12.5% +13.2 pp Model Edge
Dálnice Speřice 32.6% 7.4% +25.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tatran Bohunice's win probability at 80.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 38.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tatran Bohunice win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tatran Bohunice higher (80.1% vs model 41.8%, 38.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tatran Bohunice win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tatran Bohunice 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Dálnice Speřice 32.6%
    • xG · Tatran Bohunice 1.45 — Dálnice Speřice 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tatran Bohunice 1.11 · Draw 7.10 · Dálnice Speřice 12.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Tatran Bohunice 80.1% · Draw 12.5% · Dálnice Speřice 7.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tatran Bohunice 1.11 · Draw 7.10 · Dálnice Speřice 12.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Tatran Bohunice 80.1% · Draw 12.5% · Dálnice Speřice 7.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tatran Bohunice win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (38 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 03:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1962481

Closing Odds 1.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tatran Bohunice win · Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Dálnice Speřice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tatran Bohunice; market prices Tatran Bohunice instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Tatran Bohunice 1.45 xG vs Dálnice Speřice 1.25 → Tatran Bohunice 41.8%
  • Market: Tatran Bohunice ~80.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS No (Yes 43.7% · No 56.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie D 4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 22 4 3 70
2 Tatran Bohunice 30 18 6 6 60
3 Kuřim 29 16 7 6 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 15 6 8 51
5 Znojmo 30 14 6 10 48
6 Velké Meziříčí 29 12 7 10 43
7 Pelhřimov 29 11 7 11 40
8 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 11 6 12 39
9 Sokol Tasovice 29 10 7 12 37
10 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 10 6 13 36
11 Chotebor 29 10 4 15 34
12 Sparta Brno 29 9 4 16 31
13 Havlíčkův Brod 29 7 7 15 28
14 Humpolec 29 8 4 17 28
15 FS Třebíč 29 5 12 12 27
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 7 3 19 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 91 26 +65 70
2 Znojmo 30 62 37 +25 48
3 Kuřim 29 58 28 +30 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 58 38 +20 51
5 Velké Meziříčí 29 52 48 +4 43
6 Sparta Brno 29 52 55 -3 31
7 Pelhřimov 29 47 59 -12 40
8 Sokol Tasovice 29 44 59 -15 37
9 Humpolec 29 43 55 -12 28
10 Tatran Bohunice 30 41 24 +17 60
11 Havlíčkův Brod 29 39 48 -9 28
12 FS Třebíč 29 33 58 -25 27
13 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 32 52 -20 36
14 Chotebor 29 32 54 -22 34
15 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 30 41 -11 39
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 24 56 -32 24
4. liga - Divizie D Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D Predictions