Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D / Velké Meziříčí vs Sparta Brno

Prediction Audit: Velké Meziříčí vs Sparta Brno Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Velké Meziříčí Velké Meziříčí
May 08, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Sparta Brno Sparta Brno

AI correctly predicted the Velké Meziříčí win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Velké Meziříčí Velké Meziříčí ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Velké Meziříčí considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Velké Meziříčí +9.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Velké Meziříčí 41.8% 32.4% +9.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 27.0% -1.4 pp Aligned
Sparta Brno 32.6% 40.6% -8.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Velké Meziříčí's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.4%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Velké Meziříčí win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Velké Meziříčí.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Velké Meziříčí more conservatively (32.4% vs model 41.8%, 9.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Velké Meziříčí win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Velké Meziříčí 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sparta Brno 32.6%
    • xG · Velké Meziříčí 1.45 — Sparta Brno 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Velké Meziříčí 2.75 · Draw 3.29 · Sparta Brno 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Velké Meziříčí 32.4% · Draw 27.0% · Sparta Brno 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Velké Meziříčí 2.75 · Draw 3.29 · Sparta Brno 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Velké Meziříčí 32.4% · Draw 27.0% · Sparta Brno 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Velké Meziříčí win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10601941

Closing Odds 2.75
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Velké Meziříčí win · Velké Meziříčí 2–1 Sparta Brno
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie D
  • Fixture: Velké Meziříčí vs Sparta Brno
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Velké Meziříčí 1.45 — Sparta Brno 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 68.8% · Implied: 58.7% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.0% · No 38.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie D 4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 22 4 3 70
2 Tatran Bohunice 30 18 6 6 60
3 Kuřim 29 16 7 6 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 15 6 8 51
5 Znojmo 30 14 6 10 48
6 Velké Meziříčí 29 12 7 10 43
7 Pelhřimov 29 11 7 11 40
8 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 11 6 12 39
9 Sokol Tasovice 29 10 7 12 37
10 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 10 6 13 36
11 Chotebor 29 10 4 15 34
12 Sparta Brno 29 9 4 16 31
13 Havlíčkův Brod 29 7 7 15 28
14 Humpolec 29 8 4 17 28
15 FS Třebíč 29 5 12 12 27
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 7 3 19 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 91 26 +65 70
2 Znojmo 30 62 37 +25 48
3 Kuřim 29 58 28 +30 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 58 38 +20 51
5 Velké Meziříčí 29 52 48 +4 43
6 Sparta Brno 29 52 55 -3 31
7 Pelhřimov 29 47 59 -12 40
8 Sokol Tasovice 29 44 59 -15 37
9 Humpolec 29 43 55 -12 28
10 Tatran Bohunice 30 41 24 +17 60
11 Havlíčkův Brod 29 39 48 -9 28
12 FS Třebíč 29 33 58 -25 27
13 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 32 52 -20 36
14 Chotebor 29 32 54 -22 34
15 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 30 41 -11 39
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 24 56 -32 24
4. liga - Divizie D Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D Predictions