Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D / Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Dálnice Speřice

Prediction Audit: Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Dálnice Speřice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ždírec nad Doubravou Ždírec nad Doubravou
May 03, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Dálnice Speřice Dálnice Speřice

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Ždírec nad Doubravou at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ždírec nad Doubravou Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ždírec nad Doubravou higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ždírec nad Doubravou -11.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ždírec nad Doubravou 41.8% 53.7% -11.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.4% +3.3 pp Aligned
Dálnice Speřice 32.6% 23.9% +8.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Ždírec nad Doubravou's win probability at 53.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ždírec nad Doubravou than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ždírec nad Doubravou by 11.9 percentage points (53.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Dálnice Speřice 32.6%
    • xG · Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.45 — Dálnice Speřice 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 14:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.67 · Draw 4.00 · Dálnice Speřice 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 53.7% · Draw 22.4% · Dálnice Speřice 23.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 03, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.67 · Draw 4.00 · Dálnice Speřice 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 53.7% · Draw 22.4% · Dálnice Speřice 23.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 03, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3430954

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ždírec nad Doubravou 0–0 Dálnice Speřice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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4. liga - Divizie D 4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 22 4 3 70
2 Tatran Bohunice 30 18 6 6 60
3 Kuřim 29 16 7 6 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 15 6 8 51
5 Znojmo 30 14 6 10 48
6 Velké Meziříčí 29 12 7 10 43
7 Pelhřimov 29 11 7 11 40
8 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 11 6 12 39
9 Sokol Tasovice 29 10 7 12 37
10 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 10 6 13 36
11 Chotebor 29 10 4 15 34
12 Sparta Brno 29 9 4 16 31
13 Havlíčkův Brod 29 7 7 15 28
14 Humpolec 29 8 4 17 28
15 FS Třebíč 29 5 12 12 27
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 7 3 19 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Líšeň II 29 91 26 +65 70
2 Znojmo 30 62 37 +25 48
3 Kuřim 29 58 28 +30 55
4 Velká Bíteš 29 58 38 +20 51
5 Velké Meziříčí 29 52 48 +4 43
6 Sparta Brno 29 52 55 -3 31
7 Pelhřimov 29 47 59 -12 40
8 Sokol Tasovice 29 44 59 -15 37
9 Humpolec 29 43 55 -12 28
10 Tatran Bohunice 30 41 24 +17 60
11 Havlíčkův Brod 29 39 48 -9 28
12 FS Třebíč 29 33 58 -25 27
13 Žďár nad Sázavou 29 32 52 -20 36
14 Chotebor 29 32 54 -22 34
15 Ždírec nad Doubravou 29 30 41 -11 39
16 Dálnice Speřice 29 24 56 -32 24
4. liga - Divizie D Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D Predictions