Prediction Audit: Kuřim vs Tatran Bohunice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kuřim

Apr 15, 2026 - 14:45

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Tatran Bohunice

AI correctly predicted the Kuřim win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Kuřim Kuřim ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Kuřim win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 20, 2026 · 18:24 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Kuřim 1.45 — Tatran Bohunice 1.25
Apr 15, 2026 · 14:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Kuřim win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 04:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9185929

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds 2.02

CLV Pending

Final Result Kuřim win · Kuřim 3–1 Tatran Bohunice

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

Expected: 49.4%
Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 4. liga - Divizie D
Fixture: Kuřim vs Tatran Bohunice
Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Kuřim 1.45 — Tatran Bohunice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 57.0% · Implied: 41.1% · Probability edge: +15.9 pts · Est. EV: +34.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie D — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	29	22	4	3	70
2	Tatran Bohunice	30	18	6	6	60
3	Kuřim	29	16	7	6	55
4	Velká Bíteš	29	15	6	8	51
5	Znojmo	30	14	6	10	48
6	Velké Meziříčí	29	12	7	10	43
7	Pelhřimov	29	11	7	11	40
8	Ždírec nad Doubravou	29	11	6	12	39
9	Sokol Tasovice	29	10	7	12	37
10	Žďár nad Sázavou	29	10	6	13	36
11	Chotebor	29	10	4	15	34
12	Sparta Brno	29	9	4	16	31
13	Havlíčkův Brod	29	7	7	15	28
14	Humpolec	29	8	4	17	28
15	FS Třebíč	29	5	12	12	27
16	Dálnice Speřice	29	7	3	19	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Líšeň II	29	91	26	+65	70
2	Znojmo	30	62	37	+25	48
3	Kuřim	29	58	28	+30	55
4	Velká Bíteš	29	58	38	+20	51
5	Velké Meziříčí	29	52	48	+4	43
6	Sparta Brno	29	52	55	-3	31
7	Pelhřimov	29	47	59	-12	40
8	Sokol Tasovice	29	44	59	-15	37
9	Humpolec	29	43	55	-12	28
10	Tatran Bohunice	30	41	24	+17	60
11	Havlíčkův Brod	29	39	48	-9	28
12	FS Třebíč	29	33	58	-25	27
13	Žďár nad Sázavou	29	32	52	-20	36
14	Chotebor	29	32	54	-22	34
15	Ždírec nad Doubravou	29	30	41	-11	39
16	Dálnice Speřice	29	24	56	-32	24