Prediction Audit: Hlučín vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hlučín

May 08, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.45

6 1.25

xG Accuracy: 24%

Sigma Olomouc II

The model missed the final outcome (Sigma Olomouc II win 1–6).

The model had projected Hlučín at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hlučín Sigma Olomouc II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Sigma Olomouc II win 1–6, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 10, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Hlučín 1.45 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.25
May 08, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Sigma Olomouc II win · 1–6
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3070749

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds 2.39

CLV Pending

Final Result Sigma Olomouc II win · Hlučín 1–6 Sigma Olomouc II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 41.8%
Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Building sample

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. liga - MSFL
Fixture: Hlučín vs Sigma Olomouc II
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Hlučín 1.45 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Hlučín
Model: 41.8% · Implied: 17.4% · Probability edge: +24.3 pts · Est. EV: +6.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 51.3% · No 48.7%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (10.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Třinec	34	23	7	4	76
2	Hodonín	33	21	7	5	70
3	Sigma Olomouc II	34	19	6	10	62
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	33	19	4	10	61
5	Uničov	33	17	11	6	61
6	Frýdek-Místek	33	16	10	7	58
7	Vrchovina	33	16	7	10	55
8	Unie Hlubina	33	13	8	12	47
9	Vsetín	33	13	6	14	45
10	Zlín II	34	11	10	13	43
11	Vítkovice	33	11	7	15	40
12	Slovácko II	33	9	11	13	38
13	Polanka nad Odrou	34	9	8	17	35
14	Hranice	33	7	9	17	30
15	Blansko	33	9	3	21	30
16	Karviná II	33	7	8	18	29
17	Hlučín	33	6	7	20	25
18	Start Brno	33	4	12	18	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Třinec	34	75	27	+48	76
2	Hodonín	33	75	36	+39	70
3	Sigma Olomouc II	34	71	33	+38	62
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	33	67	46	+21	61
5	Vrchovina	33	63	49	+14	55
6	Zlín II	34	57	64	-7	43
7	Frýdek-Místek	33	52	37	+15	58
8	Uničov	33	52	41	+11	61
9	Unie Hlubina	33	51	47	+4	47
10	Vsetín	33	51	52	-1	45
11	Slovácko II	33	48	54	-6	38
12	Vítkovice	33	46	55	-9	40
13	Blansko	33	44	77	-33	30
14	Hlučín	33	39	72	-33	25
15	Karviná II	33	38	59	-21	29
16	Hranice	33	37	58	-21	30
17	Polanka nad Odrou	34	37	62	-25	35
18	Start Brno	33	32	66	-34	24